tonight at 9:30 PM, the United States is about to make a big move! The non-farm payrolls data, usually released on the first Friday of each month, has been delayed due to the government shutdown caused by a strike. Tonight, not only will the November data be released, but also a "partial" October data to make up for the backlog, as if revealing two cards at once. The market is currently undergoing a minor reset in macro narrative. Last week, the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates, and Powell hinted at downside risks in the employment market. The key focus tonight is: Is what he said about the "wolf coming" real?

Let's look at these three points to stay calm: First, market expectations are that in November only 50,000 jobs will be added, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5%. The worse the data, the more likely the Federal Reserve will cut rates again next year, which is positive for the crypto market; second, the incomplete October data may have some distortions, so don’t get impulsive just by looking at the figures; third, the market is waiting for a soft landing scenario. As long as the data isn’t a "cliff-like" plunge, the market will interpret it as a sign that rate cuts are assured.

I suggest not betting on exact numbers tonight, but on expectations. Slight discrepancies in data are positive for the crypto market; extremely good data might actually be a warning. Most likely, “bad news is good news,” once the narrative of easing liquidity is established, our spring is not far away! $BTC Let’s look forward to tonight’s market together!