توقعات خفض سعر الفائدة من الاحتياطي الفيدرالي ثابتة كالصخرة: يجب أن تظهر بيانات الوظائف غير الزراعية مفاجأة درامية لتغيير الوتيرة

【Coin Circle】Currently, the market has formed fairly definite expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path this year — two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, with the first anticipated to begin in late April. How solid is this pricing? Even if the U.S. non-farm payroll report released this Friday shows minor surprises, it will be difficult to shake this expectation.

According to the latest analysis, Goldman Sachs expects the employment growth in this report to be around 70,000, a figure that basically aligns with broad market expectations. Although informal market whispers suggest possible upside risks, even if data comes in close to expectations, it would reinforce rather than disrupt the current macroeconomic narrative — demonstrating just how confident the market is about the rate-cut cycle.

To truly change the timing of rate cuts, data needs to show “considerably dramatic” surprises. Specifically, from a market perspective, non-farm employment data falling in the 70,000-100,000 range would be the ideal outcome, as it would reflect continued economic expansion without reigniting inflation concerns or threatening the launch of the rate-cut cycle — this fully supports the judgment of gradual U.S. economic slowdown rather than a sudden hard landing.

But what if data comes in below 50,000? That would be interpreted as falling short of the employment growth level needed to maintain economic stability, and investors would likely become uneasy about the risk of sharply decelerating growth. At the other extreme, if data exceeds 125,000, it could prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut, pushing the anticipated cut date back to June.

Simply put, the market’s consensus on the Federal Reserve’s policy path is currently quite solid. Unless employment data truly deviates significantly, this expectation is unlikely to see major adjustments in the short term.