Since the start of 2026, the environment for Bitcoin has differed noticeably from early-cycle rebounds in previous cycles. Recently, the technical picture appears to be undergoing repair, and a slightly more aggressive short-term strategy is possible, but from a larger structural perspective, the conditions supporting a sustained rally remain insufficiently strong. History tells us that once price breaks below the annual moving average, the range that follows often becomes more challenging. Combined with weakening new capital inflows and slowing inflow velocity, this round of market action resembles an environment requiring careful opportunity selection and strict adherence to trading discipline.

Super mega whales are reducing positions, but with a sophisticated approach. On-chain data shows that long-term holders have been systematically distributing chips in an orderly fashion. After spot ETFs launched in early 2024, these mega whales added positions during the early-year pullback, with the turning point appearing in October 2024—their actions shifted from "adding positions" to "reducing positions." To date, this group has cumulatively sold approximately $61 billion in Bitcoin, with net selling continuing over the past 30 days.

Interestingly, this selling pressure has been largely absorbed by medium-sized whales, resulting in a price performance characterized by oscillations and tug-of-war at high levels rather than accelerating rallies or panic-driven dumps. Compared to the indiscriminate selling that followed the spring 2021 peak, this round of position reduction is far more orderly and resembles typical late-cycle actions by sophisticated capital—a signal pointing to Bitcoin likely having entered a cyclical top zone.

From the perspective of incremental capital flows, momentum is weakening and price is approaching critical support levels.