## On-Chain Data Reveals Major Shift in Holder Structure, BTC Market Risk Escalates

Bitcoin on-chain data has shown significant changes in recent periods. According to CoinMarketCap statistics, since entering October, more than 400,000 BTC have flowed from seasoned holders to newly entered addresses, marking a cycle high in transfer scale. Meanwhile, BTC exchange inflows remain elevated, with current prices fluctuating around $90.51K, having touched the $85,000 mark at the beginning of the month, reflecting evident market sentiment instability.

**Risks Behind Market Structure Transformation**

Renowned economist Peter Schiff points out that this shift in holder composition implies deeper market fragility. The wealth transfer from seasoned investors (commonly termed "hodlers") to novice investors means market decision-making power is gradually shifting from experienced participants to emotion-driven groups. The harm of this transformation manifests not only in increased supply liquidity but also in significantly elevated propagation speed and intensity of panic sentiment.

On-chain indicator data from CryptoQuant further validates this assessment. Since the large-scale transfer occurred, bitcoin capital flows to major exchanges have maintained elevated levels, indicating that selling pressure from large holders remains significant. Supply distribution charts stratified by wallet age show that young wallets (new addresses) are rapidly increasing their BTC share.

**Historical Patterns and Current Warnings**

From the perspective of crypto market historical cycles, the current holder transformation follows typical late-cycle characteristics: early participants begin systematically cashing out, passing chips to late-market entrants. Peter Schiff warns that once this batch of novice investors faces losses and rushes to exit, the market could very likely experience deep adjustments exceeding those of previous bear cycles.

Notably, some analysts believe institutional capital participation has partially absorbed selling pressure, which may to some extent buffer the negative impacts of structural transformation. However, whether this buffering can be sustained remains to be verified.

**Key Indicators Traders Should Monitor**

For participants, focus should be on monitoring critical support levels and on-chain indicator movements. BTC supply stratification by address age, exchange net inflows, and whale wallet activities are all important references for assessing market risk levels. When novice holder proportions rise rapidly, the probability of a stampede occurring under significant price volatility increases accordingly. Peter Schiff's reminder provides important risk warnings for both long-term position holders and short-term traders.