XRP ETF Debate and Elliott Wave Analysis Shape Market Outlook

XRP’s spot ETF launch remains stalled as the SEC shutdown delays approvals, leaving investors balancing regulation risks and market momentum.

Elliott Wave analysis shows XRP consolidating between $2.60 and $3.20 with bullish targets eyeing $3.90 and $4.60 on breakout strength.

Market confidence in XRP now depends on both regulatory clarity and bullish confirmation, highlighting execution as the driver of growth.

Investors tracking XRP face an urgent mix of regulatory uncertainty and technical chart signals. On October 1, 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed it had scaled back operations due to the government shutdown

This means spot crypto ETFs, including potential XRP products, cannot launch until the agency resumes full capacity. The development places traders in a wait-and-see mode, balancing long-term prospects against immediate price momentum.

Journalist Eleanor Terrett explained, “The Teucrium $XRP ETF holds Treasuries, cash, and swap receivables, so it was registered under the 40 Act.” She added that this structure meant no active SEC approval was required. However, spot ETFs operate under the 33 Act and demand explicit approval before trading begins. Hence, the distinction leaves products like a spot XRP ETF on hold until regulatory activity restarts.

Chad Steingraber reminded followers that the Teucrium XRP ETF was not formally approved. He said, “They reached the deadline and the SEC didn’t ‘approve or deny’ the listing. So it was automatically allowed. ‘Silence is compliance’.” Besides regulatory pauses, this situation fuels debate over whether silence from the SEC equals long-term approval confidence. Moreover, investors remain cautious as the shutdown delays fresh ETF momentum.

Technical Analysis Signals Bullish Potential

Meanwhile, analysts closely monitor XRP’s chart action. DustyBC Crypto identified higher-highs forming in XRP/USD, suggesting bullish energy building despite corrective patterns. The Elliott Wave analysis shows a corrective phase from mid-July through early October. Wave A dropped XRP near $2.40, while wave B lifted it to $3.30.

Wave C later tested support at $2.60, followed by consolidation until mid-September. Point D highlighted the $2.80–$3.00 zone, setting a breakout stage. A buy confirmation rests near $3.20, marked by a cyan line. Correction wave E could still dip toward $2.33. However, a breakout could target $3.90, with longer-term goals near $4.6.

Source: DustyBC Crypto

Additionally, triangular consolidation patterns suggest a coiled market ready for expansion. Hence, XRP’s next decisive move depends on whether bullish breakout levels confirm.

Regulatory clarity and technical confirmation will dictate XRP’s momentum. Execution, not speculation, remains the key driver of investor confidence.

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