XRP News: ETF's first day of trading sets a record at 58 million, support loss may lead to a 30% drop.

Despite XRP launching this year's most successful ETF, with a first-day volume of 58 million dollars, XRP still struggles. Canary Capital's XRPC fund slightly outperformed the Solana ETF, but XRP has fallen 11% in the past week, indicating that institutional speculation has not yet translated into price strength. If XRP cannot hold the support at 2.22 dollars, there is a risk of a fall of more than 30%.

ETF sets record on its first day with 58.6 million dollars in institutional inflow

(Source: X)

XRP attracted $58.6 million in funding on its first day of listing, breaking the record for cryptocurrency ETFs this year, previously held by the Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) under Bitwise. This figure is significant in the XRP news, indicating strong interest from institutional investors in XRP. Meanwhile, XRPC has more than doubled the assets under management (AUM) of its REX-Osprey fund in just two days.

According to its official website, despite the recent market pullback, XRPC currently manages $248 million in assets for investors. This makes it the largest XRP-linked ETF in the US stock market. This scale is only surpassed by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, ranking prominently in the altcoin ETF space. The success of Canary Capital demonstrates that institutional demand for XRP allocation remains strong even against a backdrop of falling prices.

Similar products from Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and CoinShares are awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to enter the trading market as soon as possible. The participation of these traditional financial giants signifies that the XRP ETF market may usher in a new round of expansion. As a global asset management giant managing over $1.5 trillion in assets, Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF, once approved, could inject hundreds of millions of dollars in new capital into the market.

However, this institutional-level influx of funds has not immediately reflected in the XRP price. This divergence phenomenon has sparked widespread discussion in XRP news. On one hand, the launch of the ETF and the inflow of funds show institutional confidence in XRP's long-term prospects; on the other hand, the continued price fall indicates that the selling pressure in the spot market remains strong. This contradictory state may persist until the ETF funds accumulate to a scale sufficient to absorb the spot selling pressure.

Price fell by 11%, institutional enthusiasm has not translated into price strength

Despite the strong performance of the ETF, XRP has fallen by 11% over the past week, indicating that institutional speculation has not yet translated into price strength. This phenomenon is not uncommon in the cryptocurrency market, as the launch of an ETF is often accompanied by a sell-off due to “buy the rumor, sell the news”. When the market has long anticipated a certain event, the actual occurrence can become an opportunity for profit-taking.

From a market structure perspective, the selling pressure on XRP mainly comes from three sources. First, long-term holders choose to take profits after the ETF launch, believing that institutional funds entering the market is a good opportunity to exit. Second, short-term speculators buy before the ETF news is announced and immediately sell after the launch to arbitrage. Third, Ripple itself holds a large amount of XRP; although it claims to release it cautiously, concerns about potential supply increase still exist.

The XRPC fund from Canary Capital has slightly outperformed Solana's BSOL ETF, which is a positive signal in XRP news. BSOL, launched earlier this year as Solana's staking ETF, had a first-day trading volume of approximately $55 million, while XRPC achieved a slightly better result of $58.6 million. This competitive landscape indicates that the altcoin ETF market is rapidly maturing, providing investors with more options.

However, the price performance difference between XRP and Solana is noteworthy. Solana's price remained relatively stable, even slightly increasing, within a week after the launch of BSOL, while XRP fell by 11%. This difference may be related to the fundamentals of the two projects and market expectations. Solana has a more active DeFi and NFT ecosystem, while XRP primarily relies on cross-border payment application scenarios, which have seen slower commercialization progress.

2.22 USD support death line, losing it may lead to a fall of 30%

(Source: Trading View)

On the technical side, the 4-hour chart shows that despite the launch of the ETF, the fall trend of XRP is still ongoing. The token seems to have temporarily found support around the 2.15 to 2.22 USD range. This price range has provided support multiple times in the past few weeks and is a key area of contention between bulls and bears.

However, if this area of demand shows weakness this week, we may see XRP fall to $1.57. This is the price level at which it rebounded during the flash crash on October 10. This means that there is a 30.4% downside risk based on the current price. $1.57 is not an arbitrary target, but rather an objective analysis based on historical price structure. The flash crash on October 10 was triggered by news of Trump’s tariffs, at which point XRP received strong buying support around $1.57 and quickly rebounded. This price level is therefore seen by technical analysts as a strong support zone.

Three Major Technical Risks Faced by XRP

Weak support at 2.22 USD: Multiple tests have gradually weakened the support strength, and a fall below may trigger stop-loss.

Downward target $1.57: Technically there is a 30.4% fall space, lacking strong support in between.

Volume Shrinking: During the price consolidation period, the trading volume decreases, indicating insufficient buying interest.

From the momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 40. Although it has not yet entered the oversold zone (below 30), it has already shown obvious bearish momentum. The moving average system has also presented a death cross, with the short-term moving average crossing below the long-term moving average, which is a typical bearish signal. The MACD indicator continues to operate below the zero line, with the histogram showing negative values and expanding, further confirming the downtrend.

However, if the support level at $2.20 can hold, XRP may quickly rebound to $3, especially before the year-end “Christmas rally” arrives, as market sentiment may improve. Historical data shows that the cryptocurrency market typically performs better in December, which is related to year-end fund allocation and the holiday sentiment of retail investors. If XRP can maintain its current support and warm up with the overall market, the target of $3 implies about a 37% upside potential.

The launch of more ETFs may strengthen this bullish scenario, as increased institutional interest could drive demand for the token. If ETFs from Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and CoinShares are approved in the coming weeks, they will provide ongoing buying support for XRP. These institutional-grade products typically require large amounts of XRP to be purchased in advance to support the creation of ETF shares, and this structural buying can effectively hedge against selling pressure in the spot market.

ETF long-term benefits and short-term price divergence

The most notable contradiction in this XRP news is: the long-term benefits of the ETF versus the short-term price divergence. From a long-term perspective, the launch of the ETF has opened the door for institutional funds into XRP. Traditional investors can gain exposure to XRP through the ETF without directly holding the cryptocurrency, which lowers the participation threshold and enhances compliance. The $248 million managed by Canary Capital is just the beginning; as more ETF products are approved and market awareness increases, this figure could grow to billions of dollars in the coming months.

However, the reality of the price fall in the short term cannot be ignored. The market needs time to digest the speculative buying before the ETF launch, and it also requires time for institutional funds to truly translate into price support. This transition period is usually accompanied by high volatility, and investors should be psychologically prepared. For short-term traders, the support level at $2.22 is a key decision point: holding it may lead to a rebound, while losing it should prompt timely stop-loss actions. For long-term investors, the current price correction may be an opportunity to accumulate positions, provided they believe in the long-term value of XRP and the structural benefits brought by the ETF.