Bitcoin Price Prediction: Kenya ATM Tests Legal Framework, ETF Redemption of 1.1 Billion Sets Worst Record in History

Kenya has suddenly launched Bitcoin ATMs, posing a test to its crypto assets laws. The U.S. government has reopened the economy, and it is expected that over 100 new crypto assets ETF applications will be listed by 2026, putting pressure on Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has fallen this week to a critical demand range of $83,800 to $75,000, and traders are closely following changes in regulatory policies.

Kenya Bitcoin ATM Tests New Regulatory Framework

Bitcoin ATM machines have now appeared in major shopping centers in Nairobi, which is undoubtedly a direct test of Kenya's newly launched crypto assets framework. These machines labeled “Bankless Bitcoin” are located next to traditional banking kiosks, allowing shoppers to directly exchange cash for crypto assets—regulators did not anticipate that this convenient access would become so widespread so quickly.

Just a few weeks after Kenya enacted the “2025 Virtual Assets Service Providers Act”, this new regulation was introduced. The act is Kenya's first licensing regime aimed at exchanges, custodians, and wallet providers, designed to bring a clear regulatory environment to this rapidly evolving market in the absence of formal rules. The sudden installation of a large number of ATMs in high-traffic retail centers has raised questions about whether regulators can quickly enforce, monitor operators, and ensure their compliance with the new licensing requirements.

Kenya's attempt to construct a structured digital asset ecosystem may face real tests sooner than expected. The case of this African country has demonstrative significance for global regulation. Many emerging market countries are observing Kenya's experiment: rapid legislation followed by challenges in practical application, or allowing the market to grow wildly before regulating afterward? Kenya has chosen the former, but the rapid deployment of Bitcoin ATMs shows that the time lag between enforcement and legislation could become a loophole.

From the perspective of Bitcoin price prediction, the regulatory experiments in emerging markets like Kenya have a dual nature. On the positive side, a clear regulatory framework may attract more legitimate capital, providing new sources of demand for Bitcoin. On the negative side, if regulatory enforcement is chaotic or overly strict, it may trigger market panic and capital flight. The chaos surrounding Bitcoin ATMs in Kenya has already sparked heated discussions on social media, and this uncertainty adds additional volatility factors to Bitcoin prices.

ETF redemption of 1.1 billion dollars sets the worst record in history

The government's reopening has not realized the expectations of rising momentum for ETFs. The U.S. government's reopening has begun to reshape people's expectations for the crypto assets market, with analysts predicting a wave of new crypto assets ETFs in 2026. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan told CNBC that the demand for regulated crypto assets products remains “huge,” noting that there may be over 100 new ETF applications next year. Investors are particularly focused on simple index funds that offer passive investment opportunities without the need to bear the complexities of direct custody.

However, short-term pressure still exists, which is a key factor affecting Bitcoin price predictions. Although the newly launched XRP ETF by Canary Capital raised as much as $58 million on its first day, XRP still fell 13% this week. The Bitcoin ETF is also facing difficulties, with redemptions exceeding $1.1 billion in November, marking the worst month on record so far. This figure is shocking because the Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows in most months since its launch in January 2024. The massive redemptions in November signify a fundamental shift in market sentiment.

Due to the Bitcoin trading price being below the average cost price of 89,600 USD, many ETF investors have incurred losses. This cost price is calculated as a weighted average based on the historical purchase records of all Bitcoin ETFs, representing the overall cost basis of institutional investors. When the Bitcoin price falls below this level, it indicates that more than half of the ETF holders are in a loss position, and this paper loss often triggers panic redemptions.

However, analysts believe that the government's reopening of the economy and the launch of new ETF products may lay the groundwork for a stronger rebound in Bitcoin price predictions for 2026. After the market undergoes deep adjustments, it often welcomes a healthier upward trend. The redemption wave in November may be cleansing leverage and short-term speculators, creating a more favorable entry environment for long-term investors.

Key Data of the ETF Market

Total Redemption Amount in November: Over 1.1 billion USD, the worst record since the ETF was launched.

ETF average cost price: 89,600 USD, the current price has fallen below causing widespread losses.

XRP ETF First Day Fundraising: $58 million, but XRP still fell 13% this week.

Expected in 2026: Over 100 new ETF applications, long-term demand remains strong

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Battle in the Demand Zone of 83,800 to 75,000 USD

(Source: Trading View)

Bitcoin continues to decline, breaking below the long-term trend line and moving towards the intraday demand zone between $83,800 and $75,000. The downtrend unfolds within a clear descending channel, with each rebound being capped near the 20-day moving average, which has now clearly crossed below the 50-day moving average. This crossover reflects a weakening of short-term momentum, and the pace of selling has also begun to slow down.

The 20-day moving average crossing below the 50-day moving average is known as the “death cross,” and it is one of the most classic bearish signals in technical analysis. This crossover indicates that short-term price momentum has significantly weakened compared to the medium-term trend, usually signaling further declines. However, the death cross is also a lagging indicator; it confirms a trend reversal that has already occurred rather than predicting the future. Therefore, when the death cross appears, the price may have already fallen significantly, and blindly shorting at this point is unwise.

On the daily chart, the RSI indicator is close to 31. Bitcoin has previously formed a higher low structure or exhibited early bullish divergence in that area, followed by a significant reversal. An RSI of 30 is typically considered an oversold threshold, and a reading of 31 indicates that the market is very close to being oversold. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often experiences a technical rebound after the RSI falls below 30, as the selling pressure at this level is usually over-released.

The recent K-line shows a longer lower shadow, suggesting that buyers are gradually testing the downward space. A long lower shadow means that although the price dropped significantly during the trading session, there was ultimately buying pressure that pulled the price back up, closing well above the lowest price. This price behavior usually occurs during the bottom formation phase, indicating that the selling pressure is weakening and buying pressure is starting to intervene.

If the price reaches the demand zone of $83,800 to $75,000, traders will follow for a bullish engulfing pattern or a clear reversal shadow. These signals usually indicate that the price will rotate upwards. A bullish engulfing pattern refers to a candlestick where a bullish candle completely engulfs the body of the previous bearish candle, showing that buying power overwhelmingly surpasses selling power. A reversal shadow refers to a candlestick with a very long lower shadow and a small body, indicating that although the price has dropped significantly, buying pressure has strongly intervened at the low.

Rebound Path and Mid-term Pattern Outlook

The potential recovery path drawn through TradingView's forecasting tools indicates that the Bitcoin price prediction will first rebound to around $99,000, and if it breaks through the upper channel boundary, it will test $115,000 again. A broader structure suggests that a mid-term pattern is forming: accumulation is occurring within the demand area, with risks confined below $75,000, and the upward potential could reach between $103,000 and $115,000.

This Bitcoin price prediction path provides a clear risk-reward framework. If bought around $75,000, the risk could be a further fall to $70,000 (approximately 7% downside risk), while the potential reward is a rebound to $99,000 (approximately 32% upside potential) or even $115,000 (approximately 53% upside potential). This risk-reward ratio of 1:4 to 1:7 is extremely attractive for medium to long-term investors.

The existence of a downward channel provides traders with a clear operational framework. When the price touches the lower boundary of the channel, it is usually a short-term buying opportunity. When the price rebounds to the upper boundary of the channel, it is a time to take short-term profits or reduce positions. This channel trading strategy is particularly effective in a ranging market, provided that the channel structure remains intact. If the price effectively falls below the lower boundary of the channel, the entire technical structure needs to be reassessed.

From a time cycle perspective, Bitcoin price forecasts indicate that the testing of the demand zone may be completed within the next 1-2 weeks. Once the price reaches the $75,000 to $83,800 region and a clear reversal signal appears (such as a bullish engulfing, RSI divergence, or increased volume), a rebound may quickly unfold. The first target of $99,000 may be achieved within 2-4 weeks after the rebound begins, while the second target of $115,000 may take 2-3 months.

However, the premise of this optimistic scenario is that the demand zone can hold. If $75,000 is also lost, the Bitcoin price forecast will need to be reassessed, with the next support level possibly in the range of $70,000 to $65,000. The regulatory chaos in Kenya, the ongoing redemption pressure on ETFs, and the uncertainty in the macroeconomy could all become catalysts for triggering further falls.

For investors, the current stage strategy should be to remain vigilant but ready to act. Closely follow the price behavior around $83,800, and if strong support signals appear, a small position can be tested. Increase buying intensity near $75,000, but be sure to set a stop-loss below $72,000. The target can be set at $99,000, and after breaking through, continue to hold and wait for a test at $115,000. This tiered risk management strategy can capture rebound opportunities while protecting capital from further declines.