Peter Brandt: Bitcoin Could Hit $200,000 — But Probably Not Until 2029

Legendary trader Peter Brandt, known for his decades of technical analysis and accurate long-term calls, has reiterated his belief that Bitcoin will eventually reach $200,000. However, he now places that target around Q3 2029 — roughly four years away — and warns of significant downside risk before any major breakout.

Brandt’s Current Outlook

In his latest commentary on November 21, 2025, Brandt pointed to Bitcoin’s ongoing two-month decline — now trading near $86,000, its lowest level since late April — as evidence that the market is still in a corrective phase. He sees two potential near-term scenarios:

1. Mild Correction: A drop toward $81,000 as the next major support.
2. Deeper Bear Case: A decline to $58,000 if key technical levels fail.

Brandt emphasizes that Bitcoin remains within a long-term bullish channel that began in 2018, but the current price action reflects distribution and profit-taking rather than the start of a new parabolic advance.

The $200,000 Target: Timeline Pushed Back

While Brandt has long been bullish on Bitcoin’s multi-year trajectory, he now frames $200,000 as a realistic target for 2029, aligning with the four-year halving cycle framework. This represents a more conservative timeline than earlier calls that placed six-figure prices closer to 2026–2027.

He notes:

• The current correction is normal after Bitcoin’s explosive 2024–2025 rally.
• Lower timeframes show bearish structures, but the weekly and monthly charts remain constructive.
• A multi-year consolidation or deeper retracement would be healthy before the next major leg higher.

Broader Analyst Sentiment Shifting

Brandt is not alone in adjusting expectations. Several prominent voices have recently lowered near-term targets:

• Standard Chartered now sees $135,000 by end-2026 (down from $200,000).
• Some macro desks have pushed $150,000+ calls into 2027–2029.
• On-chain metrics like MVRV and realized profit/loss ratios support a prolonged accumulation phase.

Historical Context

Bitcoin has repeatedly followed large corrections with multi-year sideways or downward periods before new highs:

• 2014–2017: –85% drawdown → 20,000% rally
• 2018–2021: –84% drawdown → 1,500% rally
• 2022–2025: –77% drawdown → 700%+ rally so far

A move to $58,000–$81,000 would fit this historical pattern of deep but temporary retracements.

Bottom Line from Peter Brandt

Bitcoin remains in a long-term bull market, but patience is required. The path to $200,000 is still intact — just not on the accelerated timeline many expected. Traders should prepare for potential tests of $81,000 or lower before the next sustainable upward phase begins, likely culminating around the 2028–2029 halving cycle.

In summary, Peter Brandt sees $200,000 Bitcoin as inevitable — but not imminent — with $81,000–$58,000 possible first as the market digests 2024–2025 gains before resuming its long-term uptrend toward 2029.