The seven major industries in the United States have already signaled a red light, with cracks beneath the surface data stability.

The performance of the U.S. economy remains strong, but there are micro-level concerns in the data. Treasury Secretary Bessent has also rarely warned that multiple sectors face a synchronous recession, shaking the soft landing consensus? (Background: Trump threatens to fire Powell again: incompetent enough to be prosecuted, Bessent, if you don’t handle it, you’ll be fired.) (Background: “The Big Short” Michael Burry has closed out his holdings this season! Why is he turning to shorting Nvidia and Chinese tech stocks?) When discussing the U.S. economy, officials love to use a bunch of big indicators to tell a beautiful story: GDP looks good, unemployment rate isn’t high, everything seems stable. But macro data is like the cover page of a health check report: looking good doesn’t mean there are no problems, and the truly concerning situations are often hidden in the underlying details. Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an interview, also rarely admitted: “Although the overall data is good, we must honestly face that some economic sectors are already deeply in recession.” Economic appearance: rosy data The U.S. has seen GDP growth exceeding 3% for two consecutive quarters and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, which has filled the market with confidence in a “soft landing” or even “no landing.” However, research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve shows that the number of involuntary part-time workers is increasing, indicating that looseness in the labor market is brewing beneath the surface. Historical experience reminds us that the unemployment rate often jumps sharply after breaking a critical point, with a monthly surge of 0.2% to 0.3% not being uncommon. The critical point of the labor market Investors often predict the economy with linear thinking, assuming the unemployment rate will rise gradually. However, economic systems are complex and changeable; once the critical point is triggered, layoffs and reduced consumption will be mutually causal, forming a negative feedback loop. The current unemployment rate of 4.4% has reached a four-year high, and the slope of the increase is steepening. If a jump begins, it will prompt companies to further cut expenditures, and economic momentum will quickly cool down. 4+3 industries simultaneously cooling down Reports from Businessinsider indicate that the most concerning signals come from the following four main sources of employment: Real estate: On one end, there is a structural shortage, while on the other, new housing inventory is high. Builders are slowing down construction due to sluggish sales, and the number of building permits is declining, meaning job openings at construction sites will quickly freeze. Commercial real estate investment has also contracted for six consecutive quarters, and state and local governments are facing a “fiscal cliff” as federal funding wanes. Commercial real estate: For the past six quarters, U.S. commercial building investment has continued to decline. The American Institute of Architects' building design fee index (which tracks non-residential construction) remains depressed. Food and beverage: Financial reports from Chipotle and Sweetgreen reveal a significant contraction in spending among the 25 to 34 age demographic. To maintain profit margins, operators are considering layoffs; the food and beverage industry is shifting from “labor shortage” to “labor surplus.” Source: U.S. Census Bureau | Image source: Businessinsider Government: As funding from the COVID-19 pandemic gradually runs out, state and local governments are also facing similar pressures, which may lead to more layoffs. Source: U.S. Census Bureau | Image source: Businessinsider In addition to the four major industries mentioned above, some smaller sectors are also beginning to cool down significantly: Freight industry: Domestic logistics is noticeably weakening. The number of container ships from Asia to the U.S. has decreased by about 30% year-on-year, rail loading has declined by about 6%, and truck capacity has also shrunk. As logistics volume decreases, the demand for labor, such as drivers and dockworkers, naturally follows; idle equipment requires fewer people to manage. Mining and raw materials: Oil prices are below the profit line for new well drilling, and energy companies have no intention to hire more; timber prices are also below the profit level for sawmills, causing hiring to stagnate. These industries are not large in proportion, but employment numbers are decreasing. Higher education: Enrollment is declining, budgets are shrinking, and research funding is reduced, putting pressure on colleges and universities, leading to layoffs. Although higher education employment in 2025 is roughly on par with last year, this kind of resilience is difficult to sustain under financial tightening. Policy and investor crossroads The aforementioned industries are trapped in a “rolling recession,” compounded by a synchronous contraction in the economy. When restaurant servers and construction workers lose income, consumption will hit the brakes again, triggering a new wave of layoffs. This negative spiral puts the Trump administration in a dilemma: large-scale stimulus might reignite inflation, while inaction could allow the unemployment rate to soar. For investors and decision-makers, now may not be the time to celebrate, but rather to fasten seatbelts and face the potential for severe turbulence. When the soft landing consensus flips, it will be a time when the market pricing has been completely reshuffled. Related reports Wall Street leaders are entering the game: JPMorgan Chase launches USD deposit token JPM Coin, enabling around-the-clock trading and second-level payments Peter Schiff: Bitcoin is completely bubbleized “big pump is manipulated by Wall Street,” gold is the true safe haven The Wall Street Journal warns: The U.S. is experiencing a “gambling addiction bubble” from sports to AI, and Trump is the culprit driving the wave. This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.