Why does the "bearish" signal in 2025 indicate a bottom rather than a collapse?

Bitcoin doesn’t need flashy displays when technical reversal signals appear. The most recent sell-off, as of November 2025, has dragged Bitcoin’s price down by more than 30% from its all-time high, currently trading around $87,000.

In fact, Bitcoin has erased all of its growth gains in 2025, raising concerns about the risk of a deeper drop for BTC as well as the broader cryptocurrency market.

However, if you look closely at the data, you’ll see that the “Death Cross” technical pattern (when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average) has never been a red-alert sign for long-term investors.

On the contrary, this is usually more of a bottoming signal for Bitcoin’s price than a peak signal. As analyst ‘Ash Crypto’ points out, every time this crossover has occurred while the 200-day SMA is still trending upwards, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, going against the market’s panic and reinforcing the conviction of contrarian investors.

Decoding the Death Cross: A Historical Perspective on Bitcoin’s Price

The term “Death Cross” is a familiar specter in both traditional finance and the crypto community. According to technical analysis, it’s usually seen as the start of a prolonged downtrend. However, Bitcoin’s price history tells a different story.

Since 2023, whenever a Death Cross has appeared while the 200-day SMA remains in an uptrend, the market has marked a local bottom. In September 2023, Bitcoin’s price hit a low near $26,900. By August 2024, the unwinding of Japanese carry trades drove the price to around $59,900, and in April 2025, tariff volatility marked a new bottom just below $79,000.

The price drop in mid-November is also playing out according to the familiar technical script: Death Cross appears, market panics, Bitcoin plunges into oversold territory.

The current 50/200-day crossover comes after a steep drop of more than 30% from the October peak. However, unlike the deeper correction in April, this decline seems milder and is unfolding more quickly, with the descent lasting only half as long before a bottom forms.

According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, Bitcoin’s bottom is drawing closer. Although he acknowledges that BTC could fall to $70,000, institutional investors are still accumulating, indicating that the long-term trend remains upward.

GiBitcoin’s price is nearing a bottom | Source: Matt Hougan on X Sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors like Harvard, Abu Dhabi, and many others are taking advantage of panic selling by retail investors and the exit of “tourists” from the market.

Metrics such as long-term wallet growth, steady ETF inflows, and the patience of large investors waiting for technical exhaustion to scoop up cheap coins all suggest that Bitcoin’s price is approaching a bottom.

Technically, the $92,000–$94,000 zone—previously a key Fibonacci support—has now turned into resistance. The next support cluster is at $74,000–$76,000. Many agree that only if the $80,000 threshold is broken will a true downtrend be confirmed.

Macro Factors, Market Sentiment, and the Reversal Scenario

On the surface, the current correction has all the hallmarks of a Bitcoin bear market: fast, sharp, but rarely long-lasting.

The familiar process—Death Cross → Panic → Bottom → Recovery—has repeated many times in history. So what’s different this time?

Macro factors such as Fed policy and heavy capital outflows are putting more pressure on the market, but they haven’t yet turned truly negative for crypto assets, especially if liquidity improves going forward.

Institutional investors see opportunity when retail sentiment is gripped by fear. On-chain data shows “smart money” inflows are accelerating—driven by long-term asset rotation strategies rather than short-term trading.

A reversal in ETF flows, a pivot in monetary policy, or even a period of sideways accumulation could all trigger a multi-month recovery, with technical targets around $100,000–$110,000.

The big question for traders now isn’t whether another sell-off will happen, but whether the current bottoming structure will help Bitcoin price break out of this gloomy November phase.

Bitcoin Price Outlook Going Forward

If the $80,000 support holds, Bitcoin will once again prove that the Death Cross only brings a temporary correction—not the end.

History and market structure show that panic is usually the final ingredient needed to form a bottom; recoveries, not collapses, typically follow.

As Hougan shares, this is an uncomfortable phase, but it’s precisely this discomfort that marks the starting point of a new trend.

Contrarian investors have the advantage of data: in 75% of cases, the Death Cross is a buy signal—not a sell-off warning—especially in an uptrending market. He affirms:

“I think we’re closer to the bottom than at the beginning of this correction. This is an attractive entry point for long-term investors looking ahead to 2026 and beyond.”

When long-term holders start stepping in and retail investors capitulate, the stage is set for the next act in Bitcoin’s price story. Maybe you should get your popcorn ready!

Mr. Giao