Bitcoin rebounded, breaking through $91,000, with the crypto market fully rebounding under the expectation of interest rate cuts in December.

Bitcoin has strongly rebounded after experiencing a big dump to a low of $81,000 last week, rising 4.5% to $91,755 within 24 hours and re-establishing itself above the key psychological level of $91,000. This rebound coincides with a surge in market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in December, which has soared to 84.7%, pushing the total market capitalization of crypto assets back up to $3.2 trillion. Liquidation data shows that 112,600 traders worldwide were liquidated within 24 hours, totaling $324 million, of which $246 million were short positions, indicating that market sentiment is rapidly shifting from extreme pessimism.

Shift in Macroeconomic Policy: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Become Rebound Catalyst

The recent rebound of Bitcoin is closely aligned with changes in macroeconomic signals. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently anticipates an 84.7% probability that the Fed will announce an interest rate cut at the December meeting, and this sharp change has become the core driving force behind the price recovery of risk assets. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, commented: “The Bitcoin rebound breaking through $90,000 reflects a classic oversold rebound; after a brutal pullback, buyers are stepping in. The broad risk appetite driven by an 80% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December provides the thrust needed for the market to stabilize and regain momentum.”

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's previous statement about the “uncertainty” regarding another rate cut in December added a layer of macro uncertainty to the market. However, recent weak economic data has changed market expectations — the core PCE price index in October saw a year-on-year growth slowdown to 2.8%, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. These signals have strengthened investors' confidence in a shift in monetary policy. This change in the macro background not only affects the Crypto Assets market but also benefits the traditional stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.67% on Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.82%, and the S&P 500 added 0.69%, marking the best four-day consecutive rise since May.

From a historical correlation analysis, Bitcoin typically performs strongly at the beginning of a rate cut cycle. When the Fed initiated “insurance-style rate cuts” in 2019, Bitcoin rose approximately 40% in the following six months. The current environment shares similarities with 2019, but there are also significant differences — Bitcoin now has a mature ETF market, broader institutional participation, and a clearer regulatory framework. Analyst Jeff Ko pointed out: “Looking at the bigger picture, broader risk sentiment has actually remained relatively stable. The U.S. stock market is at an all-time high, with limited pressure inducing risk aversion. Expectations for a 10 basis point rate cut in December continue to rise, pointing to a more favorable liquidity environment in the future.”

Market Structure Health: Liquidity Improvement and Institutional Fund Inflows

Despite the severe price fluctuations, the market infrastructure has shown encouraging resilience. Analyst Jeffrey Ding pointed out that the Bitcoin Rebound mainly reflects “a natural rebound after a recent sharp pullback,” rather than a reaction to a single catalyst. He added: “The market structure remains healthy, liquidity is improving, and the long-term fundamentals are intact.” This assessment is supported by on-chain data—Bitcoin exchange net outflows have increased over the past week, indicating that investors are more inclined to move assets to private wallets rather than preparing to sell.

Institutional capital flows provide another important perspective. Although Bitcoin ETFs experienced capital outflows in November, recent data shows that this trend is easing. Major products like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have begun to see capital inflows again, particularly after the price fell below $85,000, with institutional buyers significantly increasing their allocations. This “buying on dips” pattern is similar to the behavior observed during the banking crisis in 2023, indicating that institutional investors have started to view Bitcoin as an important component of long-term asset allocation, rather than just a short-term trading tool.

The health of the derivatives market is also worth paying attention to. Although the total liquidation amount of $324 million within 24 hours seems astonishing, $246 million of that comes from short positions being liquidated, which indicates that the previously overly pessimistic market sentiment is being corrected by forced liquidations. The funding rate has returned to normal levels, and the open positions in perpetual contracts are decreasing in an orderly manner. These signs indicate that the market is healthily clearing from an overly leveraged state. This “reset” in the derivatives market lays the technical foundation for a more sustainable rise in the future.

Key Market Data Overview

Current price of Bitcoin: 91755 USD (24-hour rise of 4.5%)

Ethereum current price: 3038 USD (24-hour rise of 2.8%)

Total market capitalization of Crypto Assets: $3.2 trillion (24-hour rise of 3.7%)

Total Get Liquidated in 24 hours: 324 million USD

short positions Get Liquidated: 246 million USD

Long Get Liquidated: 78.22 million USD

Fed December rate cut probability: 84.7%

Technical Analysis Perspective: Bitcoin Key Level Breakthrough and Future Targets

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin regaining the psychological threshold of $90,000 is of significant importance. This level not only represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline but also coincides with the position of the 100-day moving average. Successfully breaking through this dual pressure has injected confidence into the bulls. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the resistance in the $92,000-$92,500 range, which is a combination of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous dense trading area. If this resistance can be effectively broken, the next key target will point to the $95,000 integer level.

The short-term chart pattern exhibits a typical V-shaped reversal characteristic. The rebound of Bitcoin from last week's low of $81,000 has formed a clear upward trend line, which currently provides dynamic support around $88,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from the oversold area below 30 to the current level of 58, indicating that buying momentum is recovering but has not yet entered an overbought state. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also formed a golden cross below the zero axis, further confirming the shift in short-term momentum. The combination of these technical signals provides a probabilistic advantage for the continuation of the rebound.

However, the risk factors cannot be ignored. The trading volume did not show a significant increase during the rebound, which may indicate that the buying pressure mainly comes from short positions covering rather than new funds actively buying in. Furthermore, there is a noticeable gap around $93,500, and according to gap theory, this area may attract price to fill the gap. Traders should closely monitor the defense of the $90,000 support level; if it breaks below this level, it may retest the mid-term support at $87,000. Crypto assets analyst Vincent Liu reminds: “Traders are closely watching macro signals — including the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates in December — and whether institutional funds can provide enough liquidity to sustain the rebound.”

Performance of Altcoins: Market Recovery Led by Ethereum

With the rebound of Bitcoin, major altcoins have also shown a pattern of widespread rise. Ethereum increased by 2.8% to $3038, successfully reclaiming the psychological level of $3000. This performance is particularly noteworthy as Ethereum had previously been underperforming relative to Bitcoin; this rebound may signal a broad improvement in market sentiment. From a technical perspective, Ethereum needs to break through the resistance level of $3100 to confirm a larger upward trend, with key support located around $2850.

Among other major crypto assets, XRP rose by 1.6% to $2.22, BNB surged by 3.9% to $897.9, and Solana increased by 2.9% to $143.26. This broad but varying performance reflects a layered recovery in market risk appetite—Bitcoin, as the safest crypto asset, rebounded first, followed by funds gradually flowing into large-cap altcoins, and finally reaching small and mid-cap tokens. The market is currently in a transition from the second phase to the third phase, with investors beginning to seek relative value opportunities while still maintaining a certain level of risk awareness.

From the perspective of ecological development, the activity of major blockchain networks remains stable. The total locked value (TVL) of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions has recently reached a new high, indicating that user activity has not decreased due to price fluctuations. The DeFi and NFT projects in the Solana ecosystem are also keeping active, with network fee revenues maintained at a healthy level. This solid fundamental provides intrinsic value support for the rebound of altcoins, rather than being purely driven by speculation. As Bitcoin stabilizes, altcoins may welcome more sustainable performance opportunities.

Market Sentiment Shift: From Extreme Fear to Cautious Optimism

The sentiment indicator in the Crypto Assets market shows that investor psychology is rapidly shifting from “extreme fear” last week to “cautiously optimistic.” Alternative.me's Crypto Assets Fear and Greed Index has rebounded from previously below 30 to the current 48, approaching the neutral zone. This shift in sentiment is mainly driven by three factors: improved expectations of macro policy, the defense of key support levels on the technical front, and the stabilization of institutional capital flows. However, the index has not yet entered the greed zone, indicating that investors are still maintaining a certain level of caution, which in turn leaves room for further market pump.

Social media sentiment analysis provides another dimension of insight. According to LunarCrush data, the positive sentiment ratio of Bitcoin-related discussions has risen from a low of 35% to the current 52%, while social engagement has increased by 28%. This increase in social activity typically indicates a revival of interest among retail investors, which may bring additional liquidity to the market. It is noteworthy that compared to previous cycles, the current social media discussions have significantly increased themes of “holding long-term” and “accumulation,” reflecting an improvement in investor maturity.

The changes in positions in the options market also reflect shifts in sentiment. Data from Deribit shows that the ratio of Bitcoin put options to call options has fallen from 0.7 last week to the current 0.55, indicating that investors are more inclined to purchase call contracts to speculate on upward potential. The main execution price range shows a significant increase in open interest for call options in the $92000-$95000 range, which may become temporary resistance levels on the path of price increases. This layout in the options market provides a real-time window for observing market expectations.

The journey of Bitcoin returning above $91,000 resembles a delicate dance between macro expectations and market technicals. When an 84.7% probability of interest rate cuts meets a 4.5% intraday rise, and behind the $324 million Get Liquidated lies the defeat of short positions, the market is narrating a story about faith and capital through price. The uniqueness of this Rebound lies not in its magnitude, but in its structure — a healthy market foundation, improved liquidity, and solid long-term fundamentals together build a resilience different from previous cycles. As the December Fed meeting approaches, the crypto assets market may face a new round of intertwining macro drives and endogenous forces, while Bitcoin, standing at the threshold of $91,000, has already penned the prologue for the next chapter. In the next two weeks, subtle changes in interest rate cut expectations and the direction of ETF capital flows will jointly determine whether this counterattack is a temporary technical rebound or the starting point of a new trend.