Traders bet that the U.S. government shutdown will last until the end of October.

On October 10, traders on Polymarket and other prediction markets increasingly believe that the U.S. government shutdown will last until the end of October or longer. According to the implied probability from trading prices on Polymarket, the likelihood of the U.S. government shutdown lasting more than 30 days is currently 37%, up from 15% when the shutdown began on October 1. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history occurred during Trump's first term, lasting 34 days from December 2018 to January 2019. On another prediction platform, Kalshi, the probability of the government shutdown lasting more than 30 days is currently 39%, and traders on that platform expect the shutdown to last an average of 24.7 days. (Jin10)