Analyst: Bitcoin is at a "crossroads," and any new macro surprises could trigger severe fluctuations.

On November 19, The Block reported that analysts indicated the current market data reflects a “dysfunctional flow of funds pattern”—short-term holders and Wall Street investors are heavily dumping, while long-term holding wallets (commonly referred to as “Whales”) are slowly and steadily increasing the position. BRN's research director Timothy Misir stated that Bitcoin is at a “crossroads” as large holders are increasing their exposure while retail investors and short-term buyers continue to realize massive losses. Misir pointed out that recently about 31,800 Bitcoins were transferred to trading platforms at a loss, while the number of wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins increased by 2.2%—the fastest growth in four months. This rotation is occurring against the backdrop of ongoing ETF fund outflows. Misir believes that the lack of institutional absorption of BTC and ETH has further amplified the impact of the overall market deleveraging, leaving Bitcoin trapped in a narrow range of about $90,000. Meanwhile, the macro environment is not providing support but rather causing bidirectional fluctuations. BRN's Misir indicated that the market is currently in a highly sensitive state, and any new data could trigger severe reactions; both interest rate cuts and latency scenarios coexist and are effective in the last six weeks of this year, and any new macro surprises could quickly change market positions, triggering sharp fluctuations in the crypto market.