Bubblemaps responds: Polymarket's Maduro bet and WLFI co-founder have "insider connections" with no on-chain evidence

Blockchain analysis platform Bubblemaps recently publicly refuted a widely circulated claim that traders betting on “Venezuelan President Maduro’s resignation” on Polymarket are connected to World Liberty Financial (WLFI) co-founders. Bubblemaps pointed out that the on-chain analysis method underlying this view has obvious logical flaws, and the conclusion is misleading.

The controversy stems from a political prediction market on Polymarket. Hours before the related news gained traction, multiple new wallets concentrated their “support” bets, rapidly increasing the total from about $60,000 to $630,000, with one address even profiting approximately $32,000 and approaching $400,000. Since the transaction path involved deposits from Coinbase to the Solana and Ethereum networks, some analysts interpreted this as “possibly having access to non-public information,” further linking it to the Trump-related crypto project WLFI.

In response, Bubblemaps explicitly stated that proximity in deposit times, similar amounts, or similar transaction paths alone cannot prove actual control or coordinated behavior between wallets. Its team conducted backtests within the same time and amount ranges, combining assets like USDC and ETH, and found at least about 20 other wallets that also fit the so-called “matching characteristics,” indicating that this analysis framework lacks discriminative power.

Bubblemaps also emphasized that exchange deposits could originate from bank transfers, merged historical balances, or multiple small transactions, key background details that are ignored in the related accusations. The so-called “99% matching rate” is more of a sensational narrative than rigorous on-chain evidence.

Although the timing of the Maduro bet transaction on Polymarket remains suspicious, Bubblemaps urges the community to distinguish facts from emotion-driven inferences, especially when involving political events, prediction markets, and well-known crypto projects. Currently, neither Polymarket nor WLFI has disclosed any official investigation results.