Analysis: The current market rebound is driven by spot trading, but short-term speculative positions may be excessively accumulated.

On January 8th, CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr published a report indicating that the Bitcoin market has moved out of the deleveraging phase in December and entered a period of moderate expansion. The positive composite Z-Score indicator confirms the return of market optimism, but negative divergence suggests that the current rally is driven by the spot market rather than the leveraged market. This structural healthy dynamic reduces the risk of chain liquidations. The main factors supporting the continued upward trend are that prices remain above current levels and open interest is growing slowly rather than explosively. The primary risk is that divergence indicators could sharply reverse to positive territory without price support, which may indicate excessive accumulation of speculative positions.