Berita Keuangan 26 Desember: RMB terhadap USD menembus 7, mencapai level terendah dalam beberapa bulan, emas dan perak mencapai rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa

Yuan Strengthens Through Psychological Barrier, Central Bank Stance Becomes Key

Offshore yuan appreciated strongly against the US dollar on Thursday (December 25), with USD/CNH falling to 6.9965, breaking through the “7” psychological level for the first time since September 2024, with intraday highs reaching 6.9960. Onshore yuan (USD/CNY) also fell to 7.0051, creating a new low since May 2023.

Year-end settlement and sales demand coupled with a lack of rebound momentum in the US dollar have become the main drivers of yuan appreciation. A trader from a Chinese bank stated that the market currently has strong settlement and sales demand, external USD weakness, and consensus expectations of yuan appreciation have formed. However, whether the yuan can continue approaching the 7 level in the short term still depends on the attitude of state-owned major banks.

Goldman Sachs’ latest research found that the alternating use of “resilience” and “flexibility” language by the central bank in recent months reveals interesting patterns—this pattern suggests the People’s Bank may prefer yuan appreciation while hoping to avoid overly rapid moves. Goldman Sachs economist Xinquan Chen points out that from September’s emphasis on “enhancing exchange rate resilience” to November’s shift toward “maintaining exchange rate flexibility,” the central bank’s tolerance for yuan appreciation is gradually adjusting. As the yuan has recently accelerated appreciation again, the central bank has reemphasized exchange rate resilience, indicating an intent to moderate the pace of appreciation. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that USD/CNY will reach 6.95, 6.90, and 6.85 in 3, 6, and 12 months respectively.

Precious Metals Rally and Hit New Highs, Gold Breaks Through $4,500

Friday (December 26) brought a “double harvest” in the precious metals market, with gold briefly breaking through the $4,500 psychological level to $4,504, and silver rising to $73.67, both reaching historic highs. This rally remained resilient despite global major markets being closed for Christmas holidays and thin trading, reflecting sustained strong market demand for precious metals as safe haven and value preservation assets.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Warm, US Treasury Yields Under Pressure

Bank of America’s latest outlook indicates that market expectations for Federal Reserve policy next year are gradually becoming clearer. The bank expects the Fed to cut rates once each in June and July 2026, while predicting that 10-year US Treasury yields will fall back to the 4% to 4.25% range by year-end, with no exclusion of further downside. This means global borrowing conditions will be slightly looser next year than in 2024-2025, but unlikely to return to the ultra-low rate era that previously drove major surges in housing and stock markets.

Bank of Japan Continues Rate Hikes, Yen Appreciation Has Support

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo stated that Japan’s core inflation is gradually accelerating and steadily approaching the central bank’s 2% target, with the central bank prepared to continue raising rates. Ueda pointed out that unless the economy faces major negative shocks, the labor market will remain tight, creating upward pressure on wages, and enterprises are passing increased costs onto consumers in food and other sectors, with Japan forming a mechanism of synchronized wage and inflation increases. With rate hike expectations clarified, the yen is expected to receive support—according to market data, currently 10,000 yen exchanges for approximately 447 yuan, appreciating over 3% from the beginning of the year.

Japan’s New Fiscal Year Budget Hits Record High, National Debt Dependency Falls Below 30% for First Time

Japanese Prime Minister Takagi Sanae announced that the new fiscal year budget starting April 2026 totals approximately 122.3 trillion yen, a sequential increase of about 6.3%, hitting an all-time high for initial budgets. However, the government intends to maintain fiscal discipline—new national debt issuance will be controlled at 29.6 trillion yen, the second consecutive year below 30 trillion yen; debt dependency has declined from this fiscal year’s 24.9% to 24.2%, creating a record of falling below 30% for the first time in 27 years. Affected by this news, Japan’s 40-year government bond yields fell 7 basis points to 3.62%, reaching the lowest level since November 17.

Chip Industry Optimistic on 2026, Semiconductor Sales Expected to Break Through $1 Trillion

Bank of America semiconductor analyst Vivek Arya stated that AI development remains in the middle of a decade-long structural transformation, with overall industry trends still heading upward, led by leading enterprises with clear competitive advantages. He predicts global semiconductor sales will grow 30% in 2026, expected to surpass the $1 trillion milestone for the first time. He emphasized that companies with high-margin structures and solid market positions will become the core of capital allocation, specifically naming Nvidia, Broadcom, Lam Research, KLA, Analog Devices, and Cadence Design Systems as the six enterprises he is most confident about as investment targets.

However, CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall poured cold water, believing that for US stocks to achieve another double-digit gain, “all engines must be firing.” He estimates the S&P 500 target at year-end 2026 to be 7400 points, only up about 7% from current levels. While markets may still rise next year, headwinds are increasing, making it difficult to repeat 2024’s excellent performance.

Nvidia Granted Authorization to Use Groq Technology, Strengthens Inference Chip Layout

Chip giant (Nvidia) and AI chip startup Groq reached a licensing agreement. According to the agreement, Nvidia can use Groq’s chip technology and will hire its CEO Simon Edwards; Groq will continue operating as an independent company with its cloud business continuing, and founder Jonathan Ross, President Sunny Madra, and other engineering team members will join Nvidia.

Groq completed a $750 million funding round in September with a valuation of $6.9 billion, doubling from $2.8 billion in August of last year. The company focuses on “inference”—the domain where trained AI models respond to user requests. While Nvidia dominates the AI training market, it faces challenges in the more competitive inference sector. This collaboration helps strengthen its weak points.

Global major markets will be closed for Christmas holidays, with US stock markets fully closed on December 25 and resuming trading on December 26; Hong Kong stock market fully closed December 25-26; European exchanges including London, Frankfurt, and Paris continuing to suspend trading on December 26 due to Boxing Day; Asia-Pacific markets including Australia and Singapore also closing according to local customs, with global trading activity significantly declining.