#以太坊大户持仓变化 Bitcoin's hourly chart has shown some interesting signals recently. It looks calm on the surface, but directional opportunities may be brewing underneath.

Looking at the candlestick chart, BTC just closed at 91104.1. The Bollinger Bands are now extremely tight — upper band at 91723.6, lower band at 89796.4, with volatility hitting a new low for the week. What does this compression state mean technically? Usually it's a signal before a directional change. On the MACD side, DIF is at 28.2 and DEA is at 50.4, with the two lines converging and about to cross bearishly. However, there's a key detail — the bearish momentum is actually already weakening. Trading volume has shrunk to 683, with the market showing obvious reluctance to sell. Low volume often precedes one-directional moves during accumulation phases.

Key levels to remember: 91700 above is the breakout point; if it breaks through, the next target could reach 92500. The support line below is at 90500; if this holds, the bullish base remains intact.

On-chain data also shows signals. Over the last 24 hours, whale addresses have accumulated a net 5200 BTC — that's a significant move. Exchange balances have now fallen to a 3-year low, and miner outflows have dropped 30% — this suggests large holders are quietly accumulating and selling pressure has essentially dried up. Hash rate simultaneously hit a new high, the network is very healthy, and fundamentally provides strong support.

Recent news has also provided some catalysts. The Fed's signals last night leaned toward "moderate rate cuts," which moved risk assets. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding 1.2 billion dollars for 5 consecutive days, with institutions aggressively accumulating. The regulatory clouds are also clearing; market sentiment has slowly shifted from fear to greed — this timing is quite interesting.

Viewed comprehensively, signals from all these dimensions point in the same direction. Looking through historical data, Bitcoin has exhibited this "compression-breakout" structure about 13 times, with 11 of those being upside breakouts — that's a pretty high probability. In the short term, I think the breakout probability exceeds 80%.

If I had to give target levels: short-term target is 93000, medium-term could reach 95000. Risk control line is set at 89800 (around the Bollinger lower band). In a bull market, every pullback could be an entry opportunity, but the prerequisite is having rhythm and position management — I recommend scaling in gradually with strict stop losses. Watch closely for volume signals on the hourly chart; once 91700 breaks with volume, consider adding to positions. Without a breakout, continue monitoring.

Bull markets aren't suited for trying to call tops; those who follow the trend usually profit. During this recent period, BTC may have a key wave move ahead — missing it means waiting for the next opportunity.