Setelah para pemegang Bitcoin jangka panjang melakukan penjualan besar-besaran: data on-chain menunjukkan reset siklus, kemungkinan dasar telah terbentuk

【Block Rhythm】Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) experienced the most aggressive selling phase on record this year. On-chain data analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly points out that while such selling previously triggered severe market volatility, the latest data suggests this pressure may be subsiding—which could potentially be paving the way for the next bull cycle.

From on-chain indicators, the situation is indeed worth noting. In 2025, the amount of Bitcoin dormant for at least two years experienced significant fluctuations. Bitcoin worth nearly $300 billion that had been inactive for over a year re-entered circulation. Most dramatically, within just 30 days from November 15 to December 14, the most intense long-term holder selling period in over five years emerged—November alone set a historical peak of 1.14 million BTC in 30-day distribution, an all-time high.

However, there’s an interesting detail here: prices showed weakness starting in October, while the real large-scale selling actually appeared later. This sequence is crucial. Tamuly believes this indicates the market is exhibiting “capitulation selling” rather than orderly profit-taking—in other words, this marks a cycle reset, rather than a simple continuation of the previous trend. Since 2019, sharp declines in long-term holder supply rarely occur in isolation; they typically appear when Bitcoin’s trend shows signs of exhaustion, whether an uptrend is near depletion or the market is undergoing structural transition.

More critical signals come from recent data. Since December, LTH supply has stopped declining and is currently maintaining around 13.6 million BTC, while Bitcoin price has entered a consolidation range. The long-term/short-term holder supply ratio indicator provides further evidence. Whenever this ratio drops to -0.5 or lower, Bitcoin either enters a bottom-building phase or rebounds to new highs within weeks. In December last year, the ratio fell to approximately -0.53, after which price fluctuations narrowed and momentum stalled. This performance aligns perfectly with the characteristics of a cycle reset.

Following this logic, the consolidation in the first to second quarter of this year could form the bottom range, while any sustained uptrend is more likely to emerge thereafter, potentially unfolding in the third quarter.