#以太坊大户持仓变化 Silver intraday overview: Range-bound consolidation as main trend, tonight's NFP is the turning point
Silver has come under considerable pressure during this period. On one hand, the spot market regulators have intensified risk control measures—raising margin requirements and limiting intraday opening positions. Meanwhile, the year-end rebalancing of commodity index weights has triggered a wave of technical selling. These dual pressures have directly dampened short-term speculative enthusiasm. However, looking at the flip side, long-term fundamentals remain solid: the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle expectations are in place, silver supply tensions are real, and new energy industry demand for silver is inelastic. These factors are all supporting silver prices.
Here's the key point—tonight's non-farm payrolls data. If the data beats expectations, the dollar may strengthen and silver prices come under pressure accordingly; but if the data misses expectations, safe-haven buying could flood in, and silver prices may break through resistance. During daytime hours, the information vacuum will likely keep the market oscillating within a certain range, with major directional moves unlikely.
From a technical perspective, the 74 level is critical—it's the core support of the uptrend since the November 21st low, and the dense support zone around 73.8-74 USD has already been tested once yesterday. Currently, the hourly Bollinger Band upper band is turning upward, downward momentum is weakening, and the short-cycle MACD is hinting at a potential bottom divergence signal. If today's second test holds 74, or better yet, forms a pattern of bottom exploration, rally, and pullback confirmation, it would lay a technical foundation for subsequent upside. Short-term resistance is around 78. Conversely, if there's an effective break below 74 USD, watch the previous low of 70.07 below.
Trading strategy: Today is mainly about selling rallies and buying dips, with long positions as the main focus and short positions as supplementary.
Long strategy (Main) Place light positions at 74.5-75 USD, stop loss at 73.7, target toward 76.5-77. If price explores the bottom and bounces back above 74.5, add positions at 74.2-74.5, stop loss unchanged, target moved up to 77.5-78.
Short strategy (Supplementary) Light short at 77.5-78 USD, stop loss at 78.3, target looking back at 75.5-76.
#以太坊大户持仓变化 Silver intraday overview: Range-bound consolidation as main trend, tonight's NFP is the turning point
Silver has come under considerable pressure during this period. On one hand, the spot market regulators have intensified risk control measures—raising margin requirements and limiting intraday opening positions. Meanwhile, the year-end rebalancing of commodity index weights has triggered a wave of technical selling. These dual pressures have directly dampened short-term speculative enthusiasm. However, looking at the flip side, long-term fundamentals remain solid: the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle expectations are in place, silver supply tensions are real, and new energy industry demand for silver is inelastic. These factors are all supporting silver prices.
Here's the key point—tonight's non-farm payrolls data. If the data beats expectations, the dollar may strengthen and silver prices come under pressure accordingly; but if the data misses expectations, safe-haven buying could flood in, and silver prices may break through resistance. During daytime hours, the information vacuum will likely keep the market oscillating within a certain range, with major directional moves unlikely.
From a technical perspective, the 74 level is critical—it's the core support of the uptrend since the November 21st low, and the dense support zone around 73.8-74 USD has already been tested once yesterday. Currently, the hourly Bollinger Band upper band is turning upward, downward momentum is weakening, and the short-cycle MACD is hinting at a potential bottom divergence signal. If today's second test holds 74, or better yet, forms a pattern of bottom exploration, rally, and pullback confirmation, it would lay a technical foundation for subsequent upside. Short-term resistance is around 78. Conversely, if there's an effective break below 74 USD, watch the previous low of 70.07 below.
Trading strategy: Today is mainly about selling rallies and buying dips, with long positions as the main focus and short positions as supplementary.
Long strategy (Main)
Place light positions at 74.5-75 USD, stop loss at 73.7, target toward 76.5-77. If price explores the bottom and bounces back above 74.5, add positions at 74.2-74.5, stop loss unchanged, target moved up to 77.5-78.
Short strategy (Supplementary)
Light short at 77.5-78 USD, stop loss at 78.3, target looking back at 75.5-76.