The truth consensus mechanism is definitely a trap here - who gets to decide what's true then?
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2026 is still far away, let's first stabilize the prediction markets we have now
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Explosive contract growth... feels like another sign of a harvest incoming
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What can blockchain even solve, ultimately it still relies on manual review
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Prediction markets are so hot right now, feels like a bubble about to burst
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Mainstreaming? Uh... you mean retail investors are about to start paying the intelligence tax?
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Information integrating into the discourse ecosystem sounds very grand, but it's really just easier to manipulate
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New challenges for developers? Plain and simple - they haven't figured out how to make money yet
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By 2026? There'll be new trends by then, this one probably cools down
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Truth consensus... haha, just take it with a grain of salt, human control always beats technology
Contract explosive growth sounds great, but the truth consensus mechanism thing... does it feel like another pitfall?
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2026 is still a long way off, let's fix the current information pollution first
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Predictive markets merging with AI crypto? Sure, but who decides what's true—that's the real problem
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More granular scenarios = more bugs, developers' blood pressure must be through the roof
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Transparency and auditability sound nice, but the key question is whether anyone actually goes to verify
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Another "deep integration" story, let's wait and see if anyone can actually execute it
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Massive increase in contract numbers = massive increase in information noise, who can handle that
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NotAFinancialAdvice
· 01-09 05:51
Truth consensus mechanism sounds good in theory, but the real problem is: who defines "truth"...
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2026? Prediction markets still feel too niche. Average people simply don't care
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Explosive contract growth... sounds nice, but adjudication difficulty scales exponentially, right? That's a pretty big pit
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Integrating into news and public opinion ecosystems sounds vulnerable to manipulation. How do you guarantee against narrative hijacking?
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Transparency and auditability? Web3 has preached this how many times, and it's been implemented once?
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Prediction markets + AI does have something to it, but I still don't get how you verify true vs. false information
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New developer challenges are just new contradictions, yeah? Architecture and consensus are always the core deadlock
予測市場はニッチな分野から主流へと進化しています。業界関係者は最近、2026年までにこの種の市場が暗号通貨や人工知能と深く融合し、規模が拡大し、応用範囲が広がり、能力が向上すると指摘しています——しかし同時に、開発者にとって多くの新たな課題も浮上しています。
今年の顕著な変化の一つは、コントラクトの数が大幅に増加することです。これは参加者がリアルタイムで重要な選挙や地政学的イベントの予測確率を把握できるだけでなく、さまざまな細分化されたシナリオや複雑な相互作用イベントを正確にカバーできることを意味します。これらの新しいコントラクトが情報を段階的に公開し、ニュースや世論のエコシステムに融合していく（すでに起こりつつあることです）と、いくつかの重要な問題が浮上します：これらの情報の真の価値をどう評価するか？透明性と監査可能性を強化するために設計をどう最適化するか？これこそがブロックチェーン技術の真価を発揮する場です。
コントラクトの爆発的な増加に伴い、予測市場は緊急の課題に直面しています——それは、新たな「真実の合意」メカニズムを構築し、コントラクトの裁定問題を処理する必要性です。これが市場の健全な発展を左右する鍵となるでしょう。