Since the start of 2026, the environment for Bitcoin in this cycle shows a notably different pattern compared to early rebounds in previous cycles. Recent technical indicators appear to be in a correction phase, and short-term strategy can be slightly more aggressive, but from a larger structural perspective, the conditions to support sustained upward momentum remain insufficient. History tells us that once price breaks below the annual trend line, the range that follows tends to be more challenging. Combined with weakening new capital inflows and slowing inflow velocity, this round of market action appears to be entering an environment that requires careful opportunity selection and strict adherence to trading discipline.
Super mega whales are reducing positions, but their approach is quite refined. On-chain data shows that long-term holders have been distributing tokens in an orderly manner. After spot ETFs launched in early 2024, these super mega whales added to positions during the early-year pullback, with a turning point appearing in October 2024—their actions shifted from "accumulation" to "distribution." To date, this group has cumulatively sold approximately $61 billion worth of Bitcoin, and they continue to experience net selling over the past 30 days.
Interestingly, this selling pressure has been largely absorbed by medium-sized whales, so the price action manifests as a tug-of-war at elevated levels rather than accelerated rallies or panic dumping. Compared to the indiscriminate selling seen after the 2021 spring peak, this round of position reduction is far more orderly and resembles typical late-cycle behavior of institutional capital—this signal suggests Bitcoin has likely entered a cyclical top zone.
From the perspective of incremental capital, momentum is weakening, and price is approaching key support levels.
Since the start of 2026, the environment for Bitcoin in this cycle shows a notably different pattern compared to early rebounds in previous cycles. Recent technical indicators appear to be in a correction phase, and short-term strategy can be slightly more aggressive, but from a larger structural perspective, the conditions to support sustained upward momentum remain insufficient. History tells us that once price breaks below the annual trend line, the range that follows tends to be more challenging. Combined with weakening new capital inflows and slowing inflow velocity, this round of market action appears to be entering an environment that requires careful opportunity selection and strict adherence to trading discipline.
Super mega whales are reducing positions, but their approach is quite refined. On-chain data shows that long-term holders have been distributing tokens in an orderly manner. After spot ETFs launched in early 2024, these super mega whales added to positions during the early-year pullback, with a turning point appearing in October 2024—their actions shifted from "accumulation" to "distribution." To date, this group has cumulatively sold approximately $61 billion worth of Bitcoin, and they continue to experience net selling over the past 30 days.
Interestingly, this selling pressure has been largely absorbed by medium-sized whales, so the price action manifests as a tug-of-war at elevated levels rather than accelerated rallies or panic dumping. Compared to the indiscriminate selling seen after the 2021 spring peak, this round of position reduction is far more orderly and resembles typical late-cycle behavior of institutional capital—this signal suggests Bitcoin has likely entered a cyclical top zone.
From the perspective of incremental capital, momentum is weakening, and price is approaching key support levels.