On January 10th, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Global Macro Director, posted that Bitcoin’s current trend is now closer to the S-curve of the internet rather than a power law curve. Many Bitcoin supporters claim that the four-year cycle has ended and a new wave of structural uptrend is coming. I remain skeptical about this, not questioning that the impact of the halving cycle is weakening (which I agree with), but rather questioning the claim that bear markets will no longer occur. Currently, Bitcoin’s floor is $65,000 (the previous high), while the power law trendline shows a floor of $45,000. Although there is still some distance from the target price level, if Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase within the next year, the power law trendline may move closer to $65,000 and could become Bitcoin’s make-or-break level. However, this may or may not be something that happens in the future (or within the next year).
富达グローバルマクロディレクター：ビットコインの「4年サイクル終了」論に懐疑的、6.5万ドルがトレンドの底値になるだろう
On January 10th, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Global Macro Director, posted that Bitcoin’s current trend is now closer to the S-curve of the internet rather than a power law curve. Many Bitcoin supporters claim that the four-year cycle has ended and a new wave of structural uptrend is coming. I remain skeptical about this, not questioning that the impact of the halving cycle is weakening (which I agree with), but rather questioning the claim that bear markets will no longer occur. Currently, Bitcoin’s floor is $65,000 (the previous high), while the power law trendline shows a floor of $45,000. Although there is still some distance from the target price level, if Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase within the next year, the power law trendline may move closer to $65,000 and could become Bitcoin’s make-or-break level. However, this may or may not be something that happens in the future (or within the next year).