As we approach January 30th, the U.S. government faces the danger of a shutdown once again. This event could have a significant impact on the crypto market, so traders must exercise extra caution in February.
History provides a clear precedent: the last government shutdown began on October 1st last year, and within just ten days, the crypto market experienced a flash crash. The timing is too coincidental to be mere chance.
How would a shutdown affect the crypto space? The mechanism is quite clear. First, core regulatory agencies like the SEC and CFTC would halt operations. Approvals for spot ETFs and progress on digital asset regulations would all be interrupted. Institutional investors were monitoring these policy developments, and once they're suspended, their expectations for market entry are disrupted, naturally cooling market sentiment and potentially causing institutional capital to hesitate or withdraw.
From another angle that's more direct—agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce would stop releasing critical economic indicators such as non-farm payroll data and CPI. The Federal Reserve would lose important reference points for setting interest rate policy, making decisions increasingly unclear. Market volatility would inevitably increase. As a high-risk asset class, crypto would naturally become the preferred target for capital seeking safe haven through liquidation.
The current macroeconomic backdrop is already fragile. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have been repeatedly delayed, U.S. Treasury risks remain elevated, and a black swan event on the political front would make market turbulence almost inevitable.
If the government shutdown does occur on January 30th, February could very well see a repeat of the previous panic scenario—capital flight and emotional volatility. Major cryptocurrencies would face new rounds of fluctuation, while smaller altcoins would face even greater downward pressure.
For traders, the most important thing to do now is establish risk management controls in advance. Proactively reduce positions, avoid high-volatility coins, and monitor the latest developments in U.S. Congressional budget negotiations daily. Don't be fooled by the apparent market calm recently; the underlying risks are very real. Trading in February must maintain high vigilance, with preparations in place to respond to potential market movements at any time.
As we approach January 30th, the U.S. government faces the danger of a shutdown once again. This event could have a significant impact on the crypto market, so traders must exercise extra caution in February.
History provides a clear precedent: the last government shutdown began on October 1st last year, and within just ten days, the crypto market experienced a flash crash. The timing is too coincidental to be mere chance.
How would a shutdown affect the crypto space? The mechanism is quite clear. First, core regulatory agencies like the SEC and CFTC would halt operations. Approvals for spot ETFs and progress on digital asset regulations would all be interrupted. Institutional investors were monitoring these policy developments, and once they're suspended, their expectations for market entry are disrupted, naturally cooling market sentiment and potentially causing institutional capital to hesitate or withdraw.
From another angle that's more direct—agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce would stop releasing critical economic indicators such as non-farm payroll data and CPI. The Federal Reserve would lose important reference points for setting interest rate policy, making decisions increasingly unclear. Market volatility would inevitably increase. As a high-risk asset class, crypto would naturally become the preferred target for capital seeking safe haven through liquidation.
The current macroeconomic backdrop is already fragile. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have been repeatedly delayed, U.S. Treasury risks remain elevated, and a black swan event on the political front would make market turbulence almost inevitable.
If the government shutdown does occur on January 30th, February could very well see a repeat of the previous panic scenario—capital flight and emotional volatility. Major cryptocurrencies would face new rounds of fluctuation, while smaller altcoins would face even greater downward pressure.
For traders, the most important thing to do now is establish risk management controls in advance. Proactively reduce positions, avoid high-volatility coins, and monitor the latest developments in U.S. Congressional budget negotiations daily. Don't be fooled by the apparent market calm recently; the underlying risks are very real. Trading in February must maintain high vigilance, with preparations in place to respond to potential market movements at any time.