Let me share a point that many people overlook: U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data directly determine the short-term trading rhythm of the crypto market.
Why? Because these two data points are important references for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy adjustments. Strong data means high economic momentum, which makes the Fed tend to maintain high interest rates or even delay rate cuts. This causes capital to flow from high-risk assets (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) to lower-risk bank deposits and Treasury bonds. The result is downward pressure on coin prices, with short-term sharp declines possible—historically, when non-farm data improved, Bitcoin has broken through the 89,000 level.
Conversely, if job growth stagnates and unemployment rates rise, the Fed will consider loosening monetary policy to stimulate the economy. Market liquidity increases, investor risk appetite recovers, and crypto assets often experience a 2%-4% rebound window.
There's also a more complex scenario: data showing polarization, such as weak employment data but declining unemployment rates simultaneously. These contradictory signals send markets into turbulence, coin price volatility becomes particularly severe, and trading difficulty increases accordingly.
That said, it's important to be clear: this type of macro data primarily affects short-term movements. In the long term, Bitcoin and Ethereum performance still depends on ETF net inflows, ecosystem development, and market cycles—these fundamental factors. So in terms of trading strategy, rather than going all-in on data-driven moves, it's better to wait for market sentiment to stabilize before entering. This way, risks remain much more controllable.
Let me share a point that many people overlook: U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data directly determine the short-term trading rhythm of the crypto market.
Why? Because these two data points are important references for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy adjustments. Strong data means high economic momentum, which makes the Fed tend to maintain high interest rates or even delay rate cuts. This causes capital to flow from high-risk assets (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) to lower-risk bank deposits and Treasury bonds. The result is downward pressure on coin prices, with short-term sharp declines possible—historically, when non-farm data improved, Bitcoin has broken through the 89,000 level.
Conversely, if job growth stagnates and unemployment rates rise, the Fed will consider loosening monetary policy to stimulate the economy. Market liquidity increases, investor risk appetite recovers, and crypto assets often experience a 2%-4% rebound window.
There's also a more complex scenario: data showing polarization, such as weak employment data but declining unemployment rates simultaneously. These contradictory signals send markets into turbulence, coin price volatility becomes particularly severe, and trading difficulty increases accordingly.
That said, it's important to be clear: this type of macro data primarily affects short-term movements. In the long term, Bitcoin and Ethereum performance still depends on ETF net inflows, ecosystem development, and market cycles—these fundamental factors. So in terms of trading strategy, rather than going all-in on data-driven moves, it's better to wait for market sentiment to stabilize before entering. This way, risks remain much more controllable.