2026 Everyone is buying $I'm here now, let me do a simple analysis.
At the beginning of 2026, the US made a big move in Venezuela, and Greenland's popularity is also soaring. It seems to point to a question: after the tariff issue temporarily ceases fire for a year in 2025, geopolitically the US will focus on its near-shore issues.
In 2025, the US passed two bills: the "Big and Beautiful Act" and the "Genius Act." The core of both revolves around increased dollar issuance and expanded US debt. Combined, they envision bundling increased debt with cryptocurrency, where cryptocurrency becomes the credit backing for newly issued US debt, avoiding damage to the dollar's credit from currency expansion. 2026 will continue this theme, with US debt continuing to expand, and the credit backing issue for newly issued dollars will run throughout the year.
That's why we see the opening year's Venezuela and Greenland hotspot events. Trump declared a state of emergency for Venezuelan oil revenues—Venezuelan oil and Greenland's resources, like cryptocurrency, can all serve as credit collateral for newly issued dollars.
Only after the collateral issue is resolved will the Federal Reserve begin a sweeping rate-cutting process. Otherwise, premature rate cuts will only further weaken US dollar credit, leading to further skyrocketing of non-sovereign credit currencies and many assets, spiraling out of control.
Combined with current progress, the existing $4.1 trillion US debt ceiling will be reached by end of April. The first half faces negotiations over further raising the US debt ceiling, while in May the Fed chair position changes. If progress on dollar collateral issues goes smoothly, the second half of 2026 could see significant rate cuts of over 100bp, as well as rapid expansion of US debt.
If near-shore issues don't progress smoothly and the collateral problem for newly issued dollars cannot be resolved, 2026's rate-cutting process may continue the entangled situation of the previous two years. The full year may only see two rounds of rate cuts totaling 50bp.
The US dollar index, reflecting the dollar's relative strength against a basket of major currencies (excluding RMB), overall in 2026 will maintain a steady upward trend, with the dollar's smile curve entering the rising phase of its latter half. The dollar will continue to strengthen.
The above dollar trends will clearly impact other currency assets including RMB, gold, and commodities. Understanding the dollar's change logic is paramount, so the dollar is the first piece of our 2026 annual outlook. Meanwhile, the US has been orchestrating, tightening control of the dollar—at least it won't lose.
2026 Everyone is buying $I'm here now, let me do a simple analysis.
At the beginning of 2026, the US made a big move in Venezuela, and Greenland's popularity is also soaring. It seems to point to a question: after the tariff issue temporarily ceases fire for a year in 2025, geopolitically the US will focus on its near-shore issues.
In 2025, the US passed two bills: the "Big and Beautiful Act" and the "Genius Act." The core of both revolves around increased dollar issuance and expanded US debt. Combined, they envision bundling increased debt with cryptocurrency, where cryptocurrency becomes the credit backing for newly issued US debt, avoiding damage to the dollar's credit from currency expansion. 2026 will continue this theme, with US debt continuing to expand, and the credit backing issue for newly issued dollars will run throughout the year.
That's why we see the opening year's Venezuela and Greenland hotspot events. Trump declared a state of emergency for Venezuelan oil revenues—Venezuelan oil and Greenland's resources, like cryptocurrency, can all serve as credit collateral for newly issued dollars.
Only after the collateral issue is resolved will the Federal Reserve begin a sweeping rate-cutting process. Otherwise, premature rate cuts will only further weaken US dollar credit, leading to further skyrocketing of non-sovereign credit currencies and many assets, spiraling out of control.
Combined with current progress, the existing $4.1 trillion US debt ceiling will be reached by end of April. The first half faces negotiations over further raising the US debt ceiling, while in May the Fed chair position changes. If progress on dollar collateral issues goes smoothly, the second half of 2026 could see significant rate cuts of over 100bp, as well as rapid expansion of US debt.
If near-shore issues don't progress smoothly and the collateral problem for newly issued dollars cannot be resolved, 2026's rate-cutting process may continue the entangled situation of the previous two years. The full year may only see two rounds of rate cuts totaling 50bp.
The US dollar index, reflecting the dollar's relative strength against a basket of major currencies (excluding RMB), overall in 2026 will maintain a steady upward trend, with the dollar's smile curve entering the rising phase of its latter half. The dollar will continue to strengthen.
The above dollar trends will clearly impact other currency assets including RMB, gold, and commodities. Understanding the dollar's change logic is paramount, so the dollar is the first piece of our 2026 annual outlook. Meanwhile, the US has been orchestrating, tightening control of the dollar—at least it won't lose.
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