XRP Today's News: Canary ETF Launching Soon, Can XRP Break the $3 Barrier?

Key Points:

Ahead of the crucial ETF launch week and the U.S. House of Representatives vote, XRP bulls retreated due to profit-taking.

Canary Funds is leading the XRP ETF market, having submitted Form 8-A, indicating a potential listing this Thursday.

Institutional inflows could reach $1 billion, making the XRP ETF one of the best-performing ETFs in history.

On Tuesday, November 11, the “buy the rumor, sell the news” strategy impacted XRP bulls, with traders taking profits ahead of the key trading day on Wednesday, November 12. The U.S. Senate approved a funding bill and sent it to the House, boosting hopes for a government reopening. A government reopening could coincide with the launch of an XRP spot ETF under the 1933 Act.

Additionally, government officials returning to work may allow the SEC to resume normal operations. The SEC might approve an XRP spot ETF from issuers that have not yet submitted an amended S-1 to remove the delayed trading clause.

On Monday, November 10, XRP rose 6.65%, but pulled back after the Senate vote on Tuesday.

XRP Spot ETF Could Launch on November 10

On Wednesday, November 12, speculation about the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) launching soon has intensified.

In October, Canary Funds submitted an amended S-1, removing the delayed trading clause, allowing trading after a 20-day waiting period. Although the Senate approved the bill, the House has yet to vote, and a government shutdown is expected to continue until Friday. The shutdown removes the risk of the SEC questioning Canary Funds’ filings.

Notably, Canary Funds submitted Form 8-A on Monday, November 10, suggesting the XRP ETF could go live as early as Wednesday, November 12. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared the 8-A form and said:

“Canary submitted the 8-A for the XRP ETF last night, meaning it could go live tomorrow or Thursday (today is a holiday). We thought they might launch on Thursday, but when they filed the 8-A for HBAR previously, it went live the next day. Nothing is final yet, but everything is in place. Stay tuned.”

CryptoAmerica host and reporter Eleanor Terrett also hinted that the ETF would launch Thursday, stating:

“Canary Funds has filed the 8-A. This is the final step before Nasdaq listing approval, and the ETF will officially go live Wednesday afternoon at 5:30 PM ET. Once Nasdaq completes the approval, the last hurdle is cleared, and the first XRP spot ETF will open on Thursday.”

First-Mover Advantage for Canary XRP ETF

Importantly, Canary Funds’ XRP ETF will have a first-mover advantage as the only “pure” U.S. XRP spot ETF. The first U.S. XRP ETF—REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR)—launched in September. However, REX-Osprey is a hybrid ETF, combining spot, other ETFs, and derivatives as needed.

Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares have also submitted amended S-1s to remove the delayed trading clause, enabling trading after the 20-day waiting period. If the SEC does not raise concerns after the government reopens, Bitwise is expected to follow shortly.

A possible outcome is the SEC approving the remaining XRP spot ETFs. Widespread approval would diminish Canary Funds’ and Bitwise’s first-mover advantage.

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg remains optimistic about institutional demand for XRP spot ETFs. He expressed on Paul Barron’s channel that he is more bullish on fund inflows than initially predicted, revising his first-month estimate from $5 billion to potentially over $10 billion, stating:

“I might have been a bit conservative before. We’ll stick with that number. If it hits that, at least I was right; if it hits $10 billion, I’m still right because we’ve already seen at least $5 billion in inflows. If we see that kind of inflow, I believe it will rank among the top 20 ETFs ever, possibly even top 10.”

Technical Outlook: Key Price Levels for XRP

On Tuesday, November 11, XRP declined 5.24%, partially retracing the previous 6.65% gain, closing at $2.3920. The token underperformed the overall crypto market, which fell 3.15%.

The reversal on Tuesday broke below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bearish trend.

However, certain catalysts could trigger a trend reversal and push XRP to new highs.

Key Technical Levels to Watch:

Support levels: $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.

50-day EMA resistance: $2.5525.

200-day EMA resistance: $2.5814.

Resistance levels: $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Coming Days

In the short term, the following key events could influence price movements:

• U.S. House of Representatives approval of the funding bill.

• XRP spot ETF (delayed or launched) and BlackRock’s stance on the iShares XRP Trust.

• Major companies considering XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a U.S. national bank charter, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also impact short-term prices.

Bearish Scenario: Risk of XRP Falling Below $2.35

• BlackRock cancels plans to launch an XRP spot ETF.

• The House delays government reopening, postponing the launch of XRP spot ETFs without amended S-1 filings.

• The Senate raises concerns over crypto-friendly legislation like the Market Structure Bill.

• Major companies show limited interest in holding XRP as a treasury reserve.

• The OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s national bank charter application.

• SWIFT maintains its market share in global remittances, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push XRP toward $2.35, with the $2.2 support level acting as a key floor. If that support breaks, the lower trendline will become the next critical support.

The descending channel indicates XRP failed to break above the upper trendline in early October. The failed breakout led to lower highs and lower lows, a bearish signal. Demand at the lower trendline remains crucial; a break below could see XRP test the psychological $2 level. See the chart below.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Remains Challenging

• The House approves the funding bill for government reopening.

• BlackRock submits the S-1 for the iShares XRP Trust, and the XRP spot ETF launches.

• Major companies adopt XRP as a treasury reserve, and more firms integrate Ripple technology.

• Ripple obtains a U.S. national bank charter, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

• Breaking above $2.5 could lead XRP to test the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Continued movement above these averages would make $2.62 the next resistance, with the upward trendline acting as a further resistance level.

Outlook: Short-Term Bullish Shift

Despite Tuesday’s pullback, the launch of the XRP spot ETF could push prices above $3. However, the House vote on the funding bill and the passage of the Market Structure Bill in Congress will influence short-term price action.

XRP’s near-term trend depends on the ETF launch and capital inflows. Meanwhile, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December are also shifting, requiring close monitoring of policy signals.

Traders should watch the Market Structure Bill and the launch of the Canary XRP ETF—both key catalysts in the near term.

The next 48 hours may determine whether XRP’s trajectory finally decouples from Bitcoin.