Stick to your beliefs! Rebound after rebound means reversal, keep fighting to da moon🛫️!

Standing at the end of April, looking back, this month the crypto market staged a thrilling tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a wave of liquidations sweeping through the derivatives market, and the altcoin sector fraught with risks. The concentrated unlocking of tokens triggered selling pressure, and the risk of projects suddenly being delisted loomed large, keeping investors on edge. Meanwhile, Trump's "tariff stick" attack directly pushed Bitcoin's price down to a low of $74,460, marking a turning point for the market. A turning point soon followed, as Bitcoin began a strong rebound driven by favorable policies and improving market sentiment. After experiencing a 10-day consolidation at the key resistance level of $85,000, the bulls broke through and surged to $95,748. Currently, the market has entered a phase of sideways consolidation again. Notably, institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK Invest, and MicroStrategy have continued to make substantial purchases during this period, contrasting sharply with retail investors' panic selling, highlighting the brutal nature of the crypto market's "institutional accumulation and retail exit". The profound impact of Trump's policies on the market can be summed up with "success and failure both come from the same source".
U.S. stocks closed up 0.75% on Tuesday, the Dow initially closed up 0.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.58%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.55%. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 2.1%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose slightly, and Apple (AAPL.O) rose 0.5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.3%, Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 0.5%, and Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) fell 6.3%. According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 92.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 7.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by June is 35.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 60.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 4.8%.
Bitcoin fluctuated and slowly rose yesterday, rebounding to a peak of 95407, touching the overhead resistance near the upper end of the range once again. After being stuck in a high-level fluctuation during the evening session, it began to retrace in the early morning, with the lowest pullback to around 93700 as of now. The overall market performance today shows a tug-of-war pattern, with frequent switches between bulls and bears within a narrow range, but maintaining an overall upward trend framework. This is in line with the recent consistent view of range-bound fluctuations. The extension of the fluctuation period helps to digest the short-term overbought pressure and solidify the bottom structure. Investors need to focus on key support and resistance levels, primarily engaging in range trading, while also being vigilant about global macro risks (such as interest rate policies and geopolitical events) that could potentially disturb the market. Pay attention to the support around 93500-93200 and the resistance at 95200-95500. Daily layout operations are also based on this.
Ethereum has also shown a similar pattern, but with slightly smaller oscillation space, continuously pulling at high positions in the 1700-1850 range, with the body of the candles appearing more solid; from the 4-hour chart, since recovering, the price has continued the oscillation pattern from last week, unable to break through on the upside and lacking continuity on the downside. Recently, the market has shown typical range consolidation characteristics in the absence of significant news and macro narratives to support it. Technically, the major bullish trend remains unchanged, but insufficient short-term momentum has led to limited intraday fluctuations. In terms of operation, maintain a high sell low buy strategy, and you can obtain swing profits at both ends of the range.