Mr. Know-it-all "calculates" the world, the truth behind the chaos in the market and geopolitics.
Goodness, this Mr. Know-it-all is really extremely cunning, cleverly using the situation to give the whole world a "warning." Look at the trade data between the UK and the US: in 2024, the UK exported £59.3 billion to the US and imported £57.2 billion, with a mere surplus of £2 billion. Compared to the scale of Sino-US trade, this is simply not on the same level. Is there even a need to bring this up? One can't help but sigh; sometimes this world feels like a gigantic amateur theater troupe. The current emotions of people are just like when the A-shares market was frantically speculating on junk stocks. Back in the day, when 5G concepts were booming, a certain stock was treated as a leading stock, hitting the daily limit up every day. Even when the company came out to clarify that it had no 5G business at all, the shareholders didn't care at all, insisting "You're definitely in 5G; we have the final say!" In today's America, many people feel this way. No matter how many negative news reports come out, everyone remains unconcerned, truly embodying the saying "True love makes one blind and deaf." Why such deep affection? Ultimately, it all comes down to interests at play; "Where the money is, there love is." Recently, Asian currencies significantly appreciated against the US dollar, which has pushed many insurance companies in Taiwan to the brink. The arbitrage model of Taiwan's insurance industry involves first collecting New Taiwan dollars, then converting them into US dollars to purchase US bonds and stocks for arbitrage. If the US dollar appreciates, they naturally rake in profits; however, if the US dollar depreciates rapidly, that could lead to serious trouble; and if the dollar depreciates coupled with a sharp decline in dollar assets, these insurance companies might have to 'hang themselves on the southeast branch'. In the face of such enormous economic interests, one must ask whether these insurance companies will support the U.S. or the mainland. The answer is obvious. It is also understandable that even though we have been frequently conducting exercises in the Taiwan Strait recently, those on the island are well aware that once war breaks out, Taiwan can't hold out for even three days. Yet, they continue to recklessly self-destruct, blindly fawning over the U.S., completely disregarding the lives of ordinary citizens. Is it really the deep-seated servility that has created all of this? Actually, it is not. The essence is that the money of the elite class is all in the hands of the American empire, and their lifeblood is being controlled by others, so what integrity can there be? As long as you think along this line, you will understand why every time something strange happens over in America, the market will buy into it. It's not that those people are foolish, but rather they have invested their money and are deeply bound and trapped. As soon as someone mentions good news, investors will automatically shield themselves from all truths and blindly worship like fools. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates, and they cheer "Good news! The U.S. economy is strong!"; when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, they shout again "Good news! The economy is set to take off again!"; when the Federal Reserve holds steady, they are still excited "Good news! The Federal Reserve is so calm, aren't you satisfied yet?" Look, as long as they are given a little hope, greedy funds will flood in like a tide. People who have been cut by妖股 (meme stocks) in the A-share market know that when they rise, they do so with great momentum, but when they fall, they can be even more brutal. As long as the rate of new buyers entering the market is slower than that of those taking profits and running away, it will quickly trigger a tragic stampede of more killing the longs. Recently, I have been emphasizing that the most important logic of the A-share market is "the East rises while the West falls." The trend is already clear, but some people's habitual thinking cannot change so quickly. Whenever there is a bit of positive information about the United States, it stimulates the market funds to stubbornly rush into the US stock market. At this time, the institutions on our side also follow suit and start selling off. This is the reason why every time the US stock market rises, the A-share market gets sold off. Let's talk again about Mr. Know-it-all's trade agreement. The first deal he made was with the UK, which seemed to be thriving, but now the UK can barely maintain the British Isles. Where is the former glory of the "Empire on which the sun never sets"? Don't talk to me about the UK signing an agreement with India, as if that means the US and India can reconcile perfectly; it's simply laughable. India's "big brother" nature, and Modi's "Make in India" initiative have long been in dire straits. This time, in the India-Pakistan war, India suffered heavy losses, and it's inevitable that they will target foreign investments within their borders to recover some losses. With such an investment environment, who would dare to rush in? Three countries with struggling manufacturing industries coming together, can they really become strong and automatically fill their industrial gaps? This is simply a pipe dream. What's so commendable about rolling in a mud pit with bad friends? Well, the next Asian powerhouse that Mr. Know-it-all is bragging about is probably Vietnam. Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. is expected to reach $123 billion in 2024, but how much of that is re-export trade from mainland China? Of course, Vietnam's weak economy can hardly withstand the American imperialist bullying and is likely to agree to Mr. Know-it-all's unequal treaties. But the problem is, re-export trade is like hot money; if Vietnam's conditions are too poor, they will quickly run away. So, does the trade agreement that Mr. Know-it-all claims is a great deal really have any significance? Mr. Know-it-all cannot directly handle India; the three brothers, like Mr. Know-it-all, love to be clever in a sneaky way. When two clever people come together, they can only undermine each other. Mr. Know-it-all's negotiations with mainland China in Switzerland will definitely not go well, because the gap in conditions between the two sides is simply too large. As long as we don't back down, Mr. Know-it-all will only have the option of unconditional surrender, after all, he really doesn't have the strength to hold out to the end. As long as the attitude of mainland China is strong enough, Mr. Know-it-all won't be able to learn from the tactics of Reagan back in the day and extort global trading partners. The final result is likely that Mr. Know-it-all isolates himself, actively abandons the dollar hegemony, loses military hegemony, and is unable to rebuild his own industrial system, ultimately becoming a "large Argentina." Speaking of the Federal Reserve's inaction, hehe, it is clearly trying to oppose Mr. Know-it-all. Mainland China can only deal with the dollar hegemony gradually; however, Mr. Know-it-all is directly launching an "excavator" to undermine the dollar. Which one causes greater harm? Nowadays, the Federal Reserve is also in a difficult situation, entangled in troubles. They must first resolve the primary contradiction with Mr. Know-it-all. If they can't deal with Mr. Know-it-all, nothing can be accomplished. No matter how much the likes of Besant flatter, it won't change the harsh reality that the American empire's treasury is so empty that it could run a rat, and the debt exceeds 36 trillion dollars. These issues can only be resolved by the Federal Reserve, but from a human perspective, do you think the Federal Reserve would play the fool at this time? Of course, I praise Mr. Know-it-all for being cunning, but all the schemes and tricks in this world are merely a joke in the face of absolute strength. As the saying goes, "A clever woman can't cook without rice." If Mr. Know-it-all can't even get rid of Powell, what else can he accomplish? Talking big is indeed enjoyable, but it stops there.
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Mr. Know-it-all "calculates" the world, the truth behind the chaos in the market and geopolitics.
Goodness, this Mr. Know-it-all is really extremely cunning, cleverly using the situation to give the whole world a "warning." Look at the trade data between the UK and the US: in 2024, the UK exported £59.3 billion to the US and imported £57.2 billion, with a mere surplus of £2 billion. Compared to the scale of Sino-US trade, this is simply not on the same level. Is there even a need to bring this up?
One can't help but sigh; sometimes this world feels like a gigantic amateur theater troupe. The current emotions of people are just like when the A-shares market was frantically speculating on junk stocks. Back in the day, when 5G concepts were booming, a certain stock was treated as a leading stock, hitting the daily limit up every day. Even when the company came out to clarify that it had no 5G business at all, the shareholders didn't care at all, insisting "You're definitely in 5G; we have the final say!"
In today's America, many people feel this way. No matter how many negative news reports come out, everyone remains unconcerned, truly embodying the saying "True love makes one blind and deaf." Why such deep affection? Ultimately, it all comes down to interests at play; "Where the money is, there love is."
Recently, Asian currencies significantly appreciated against the US dollar, which has pushed many insurance companies in Taiwan to the brink. The arbitrage model of Taiwan's insurance industry involves first collecting New Taiwan dollars, then converting them into US dollars to purchase US bonds and stocks for arbitrage. If the US dollar appreciates, they naturally rake in profits; however, if the US dollar depreciates rapidly, that could lead to serious trouble; and if the dollar depreciates coupled with a sharp decline in dollar assets, these insurance companies might have to 'hang themselves on the southeast branch'.
In the face of such enormous economic interests, one must ask whether these insurance companies will support the U.S. or the mainland. The answer is obvious. It is also understandable that even though we have been frequently conducting exercises in the Taiwan Strait recently, those on the island are well aware that once war breaks out, Taiwan can't hold out for even three days. Yet, they continue to recklessly self-destruct, blindly fawning over the U.S., completely disregarding the lives of ordinary citizens.
Is it really the deep-seated servility that has created all of this? Actually, it is not. The essence is that the money of the elite class is all in the hands of the American empire, and their lifeblood is being controlled by others, so what integrity can there be?
As long as you think along this line, you will understand why every time something strange happens over in America, the market will buy into it. It's not that those people are foolish, but rather they have invested their money and are deeply bound and trapped. As soon as someone mentions good news, investors will automatically shield themselves from all truths and blindly worship like fools.
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates, and they cheer "Good news! The U.S. economy is strong!"; when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, they shout again "Good news! The economy is set to take off again!"; when the Federal Reserve holds steady, they are still excited "Good news! The Federal Reserve is so calm, aren't you satisfied yet?" Look, as long as they are given a little hope, greedy funds will flood in like a tide.
People who have been cut by妖股 (meme stocks) in the A-share market know that when they rise, they do so with great momentum, but when they fall, they can be even more brutal. As long as the rate of new buyers entering the market is slower than that of those taking profits and running away, it will quickly trigger a tragic stampede of more killing the longs.
Recently, I have been emphasizing that the most important logic of the A-share market is "the East rises while the West falls." The trend is already clear, but some people's habitual thinking cannot change so quickly. Whenever there is a bit of positive information about the United States, it stimulates the market funds to stubbornly rush into the US stock market. At this time, the institutions on our side also follow suit and start selling off. This is the reason why every time the US stock market rises, the A-share market gets sold off.
Let's talk again about Mr. Know-it-all's trade agreement. The first deal he made was with the UK, which seemed to be thriving, but now the UK can barely maintain the British Isles. Where is the former glory of the "Empire on which the sun never sets"? Don't talk to me about the UK signing an agreement with India, as if that means the US and India can reconcile perfectly; it's simply laughable. India's "big brother" nature, and Modi's "Make in India" initiative have long been in dire straits. This time, in the India-Pakistan war, India suffered heavy losses, and it's inevitable that they will target foreign investments within their borders to recover some losses. With such an investment environment, who would dare to rush in?
Three countries with struggling manufacturing industries coming together, can they really become strong and automatically fill their industrial gaps? This is simply a pipe dream. What's so commendable about rolling in a mud pit with bad friends?
Well, the next Asian powerhouse that Mr. Know-it-all is bragging about is probably Vietnam. Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. is expected to reach $123 billion in 2024, but how much of that is re-export trade from mainland China? Of course, Vietnam's weak economy can hardly withstand the American imperialist bullying and is likely to agree to Mr. Know-it-all's unequal treaties. But the problem is, re-export trade is like hot money; if Vietnam's conditions are too poor, they will quickly run away.
So, does the trade agreement that Mr. Know-it-all claims is a great deal really have any significance? Mr. Know-it-all cannot directly handle India; the three brothers, like Mr. Know-it-all, love to be clever in a sneaky way. When two clever people come together, they can only undermine each other.
Mr. Know-it-all's negotiations with mainland China in Switzerland will definitely not go well, because the gap in conditions between the two sides is simply too large. As long as we don't back down, Mr. Know-it-all will only have the option of unconditional surrender, after all, he really doesn't have the strength to hold out to the end.
As long as the attitude of mainland China is strong enough, Mr. Know-it-all won't be able to learn from the tactics of Reagan back in the day and extort global trading partners. The final result is likely that Mr. Know-it-all isolates himself, actively abandons the dollar hegemony, loses military hegemony, and is unable to rebuild his own industrial system, ultimately becoming a "large Argentina."
Speaking of the Federal Reserve's inaction, hehe, it is clearly trying to oppose Mr. Know-it-all. Mainland China can only deal with the dollar hegemony gradually; however, Mr. Know-it-all is directly launching an "excavator" to undermine the dollar. Which one causes greater harm?
Nowadays, the Federal Reserve is also in a difficult situation, entangled in troubles. They must first resolve the primary contradiction with Mr. Know-it-all. If they can't deal with Mr. Know-it-all, nothing can be accomplished. No matter how much the likes of Besant flatter, it won't change the harsh reality that the American empire's treasury is so empty that it could run a rat, and the debt exceeds 36 trillion dollars.
These issues can only be resolved by the Federal Reserve, but from a human perspective, do you think the Federal Reserve would play the fool at this time?
Of course, I praise Mr. Know-it-all for being cunning, but all the schemes and tricks in this world are merely a joke in the face of absolute strength. As the saying goes, "A clever woman can't cook without rice." If Mr. Know-it-all can't even get rid of Powell, what else can he accomplish? Talking big is indeed enjoyable, but it stops there.