Mysterious trader bets on Trump winning, expected to win nearly 50 million dollars

A mysterious trader known as "Trump Whale" is expected to earn a hefty return of nearly $50 million through a series of bold bets related to the presidential election. The trader, who calls himself "Théo", not only bets that Donald Trump will win the presidential election but also predicts that he will prevail in the popular vote, a view that seems unlikely to many political observers. Théo also bets that Trump will win swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Théo has been placing bets using four anonymous accounts on a certain cryptocurrency prediction platform. Although he refuses to disclose his true identity, he has been in contact with a journalist from a certain media outlet since mid-October. In multiple emails, Théo stated that his bets are essentially an assessment of the accuracy of polling data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks and has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls since this summer.

Théo believes that the polls have exaggerated support for Vice President Kamala Harris. Unlike many armchair political commentators, he has turned his analysis into action, betting over $30 million on Trump winning.

As the election results were gradually announced, Théo felt cheerful. He woke up in the middle of the night in France to check the election situation and was excited about Trump's strong performance in Florida, believing it indicated a great possibility of Trump's victory in the general election.

On the eve of the election, Théo predicted that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris. He also predicted that Trump would win six out of seven battleground states. As of Wednesday afternoon after the election, analysts predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris would receive 67.1 million votes, although there were still millions of ballots yet to be counted in some states.

Théo stated that he bet on Trump with his own funds purely for the purpose of making money, and emphasized that he "absolutely has no political motives." However, the authenticity of these claims cannot be confirmed, and it cannot be ruled out that there may be connections between Théo and any political organizations or Trump allies.

In conversations with reporters, Théo repeatedly criticized American opinion polls, especially those conducted by mainstream media. He believes these polls are biased towards the Democratic Party and often produce abnormal results that favor Harris. Théo pointed out that, in contrast, French opinion polls place more emphasis on credibility, striving for results that are as close to reality as possible.

Théo shared a data table based on the average values of polls from a well-known political website, showing that Trump performed excellently in the 2020 swing state polls. Considering that the poll results for the 2024 swing states are very close, Théo inferred that if Trump can have a similar performance, he will easily take the lead.

Théo believes that the polls fail to adequately account for the "shy Trump voter effect." He explained that Trump supporters may be unwilling to express their stance to pollsters or may simply refuse to participate in polls. To address this issue, Théo suggests using the "neighbor polling method," which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. The idea behind this method is that people may be reluctant to directly express their preferences, but when guessing their neighbors' voting intentions, they may indirectly reveal their own inclinations.

Théo cited several polls that used the neighbor voting method and traditional methods, which showed that when asking about neighbors' voting intentions, Harris's support rate was a few percentage points lower than when directly asking individuals about their support. For Théo, this confirmed that polling agencies once again underestimated Trump's actual support rate.

On election night, while celebrating the victory, Théo revealed another key point from his analysis. He stated that he had commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to assess the neighbor effect, but he refused to disclose the name of the agency. He described the survey results as "shocking and very favorable to Trump," but he could not share specific data due to a confidentiality agreement.

Théo emphasized that American polling agencies should adopt the neighbor method in the future to avoid significant errors again. He believes that if the latest polls can measure the neighbor effect, the direction of public opinion will be much clearer.