The recently released non-farm data triggered a strong reaction in the market, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September soaring from less than 40% to 80%. However, is this optimism really justified?

The non-farm payroll data for July shows an increase of 73,000 jobs, which is lower than the expected 104,000. At first glance, this seems to indicate that the U.S. job market is starting to weaken. However, if we delve deeper into the data revisions from the past few months, we will uncover an interesting phenomenon.

The employment data for May and June was significantly revised downward, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs. The magnitude of this revision has even caught the attention of the Labor Bureau, which stated that it exceeds the normal range. This inevitably raises doubts about the reliability of these data.

What is even more surprising is that the revised new employment in June was only 14,000, a level that can actually be compared to the peak of the pandemic in 2020. This huge discrepancy inevitably raises the question of whether this is just a 'numbers game'?

When interpreting employment data, we should not focus solely on the data from a single month, but rather consider long-term trends and data revisions comprehensively. Over-reliance on a single piece of data may lead to a misjudgment of the economic situation.

Although non-farm data has a significant impact on market sentiment, it cannot be the sole basis for predicting future economic trends and monetary policy. Both investors and policymakers should remain cautious and consider multiple factors rather than viewing non-farm data as a 'cure-all' for the market.

In this complex economic environment, the cryptocurrency market is inevitably affected. Investors need to consider the macroeconomic situation comprehensively when making decisions, rather than overly relying on a single indicator.