Bitcoin pullback to 112,000 USD, macro Unfavourable Information and institutional buying game intensifies

On August 3, a certain analyst published an article stating that due to multiple macro Unfavourable Information impacts such as non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations (73,000 vs expected 110,000), the Fed's fifth consecutive hold, internal divisions, and escalating tariff tensions, global markets shifted to a "risk-off" mode: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their worst performance since April, U.S. Treasury yields fell by nearly 20 basis points, and gold saw inflows.

Bitcoin is under pressure, quickly retreating from a high of $119,800 to $112,000. The 30-day momentum has dropped to +3%, and the ADX has declined to 36, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. On-chain activity is decreasing, but outflows from trading platforms still show that the market is continuing to accumulate.

Despite the intensified short-term fluctuations, the structural bullish logic remains unchanged. Strategy and institutions have increased their holdings by more than 30,000 BTC in the past week, the Max Pain in the options market is stable at $118,000, and high strike call positions dominate. The "Crypto Project" initiated by the SEC is also expected to alleviate long-term regulatory pressure on the industry.

If Bitcoin holds steady at the support level of 110,000–113,000 USD and the momentum rises above 8%–10%, the market is expected to retest the range of 119,000–122,000 USD; if it falls below 110,000 USD, it may correct to 105,000–107,000 USD. In the coming weeks, the battle between macro risks and institutional buying will determine the direction of the next phase.