Bull run dusk signal? Analysts warn that Bit coin may face a correction, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is unlikely to stop profit-taking.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr's opinion today, the current market may be entering the late stage of a bull run, with a significant characteristic being the decrease in investors' risk appetite.

He cited the technical indicator charts of BTC's NUPL and MVRV, pointing out that the 30-day SMA average of this indicator was above 1.9 in March and December 2024, but is now forming a lower peak, indicating that holders are beginning to actively sell tokens, which is also bringing downward pressure to the market.

However, despite investors taking profits, the additional profits they gain relative to their cost basis (i.e., marginal premium) are becoming increasingly smaller with each price increase.

Based on this observation and in conjunction with the two expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, Adler Jr predicts that Bitcoin may experience two more increases during this cycle, but subsequently, selling pressure will exceed demand, and the market will enter a correction phase.

At the same time, Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen also expressed similar market concerns. He pointed out that Bitcoin recently fell below the key technical support level of $112,000, leading to a shift in market sentiment. Although there are still many bullish voices in the market, the previous cautious judgments have gradually been proven correct.

Analysis suggests that this round of decline not only continues the seasonal weakness of August but is also influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties triggered by the downward revision of labor market data. Thielen also mentioned that a similar situation occurred at the same time last year, when the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points due to market pressures.

At the same time, the market has priced in two interest rate cuts, with the first possibly implemented in September. However, before improvements in macroeconomic conditions and market fundamentals, risk assets, including Bit, may continue to exhibit weak performance.

In summary, whether it is the divergence of technical indicators, the shift in market sentiment, or the constraints of the macro environment, the market points to a possible risk window period. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts brings a glimmer of warmth to the market, profit-taking by investors and selling pressure may trigger a market adjustment. Investors should act cautiously and manage risks appropriately.

What do you think? Leave your opinions and strategies in the comments!

#比特币 # BTC #市场分析 # bull run late stage