On the date of August 6, 2025, I have some insights into the future trends of the crypto assets market. After careful analysis, I believe that the current bull run cycle is likely to end by the end of this year.

This judgment is mainly based on the changes in the inflation situation in the United States. With the new government taking office, inflation pressure seems to be rising again, and the possibility of interest rate cuts is gradually decreasing. This means that it will be extremely difficult to support the market through monetary easing in 2026.

The market trend from now until the end of the year may look like this: Bitcoin could peak in October, followed by a two-month performance period for Ethereum and other altcoins. December may welcome the final climax of this wave, after which the market will enter a downward channel.

Some may think that the Federal Reserve might start easing due to employment pressures, or that the new administration could influence monetary policy through personnel arrangements. However, history tells us that actions taken by the Federal Reserve for employment or at the behest of the president often lead to negative consequences. Therefore, even if the new chair is nominated by the current president, it is unlikely that they will recklessly support the market to help the administration.

Looking back at this bull run, Bitcoin rose from $15,000 to $120,000, which is undoubtedly a strong increase. However, if we observe the trends of most altcoins, it resembles more of a rebound after the collapse of the 2021 bull run, rather than a comprehensive bull market.

The real starting point of this market cycle can be traced back to when the Federal Reserve began to hint at a possible interest rate cut. At that time, a large amount of smart money entered the market early, pulling Bitcoin from $15,000 to $40,000. Subsequently, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and large-scale inflows of funds pushed the price of Bitcoin from $40,000 to $70,000.

Based on these observations, we can roughly speculate that the average holding cost for American institutional investors may be between $40,000 and $70,000. This price range could become an important support level for the market in the future.

Although the market may soon face adjustments, the long-term prospects for Crypto Assets remain bright. Technological innovations, institutional improvements, and broader application scenarios will continue to drive the development of this industry. For investors, rationally viewing market cycles and managing risks may be the key to achieving success in this market full of opportunities and challenges.