Do Americans want to push Bitcoin to the sky with their retirement funds?

August 8, 2025 11:39
Recently, the topic of pensions in China has been a hot topic, with everyone concerned about "whether there is enough money to use, and whether it can maintain its value." In fact, across the ocean, pensions in the United States are also quite restless. A few hours ago, Trump brought out a big move: he signed an executive order stating that retirement accounts 401(k) can now invest in alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies!

PART 01
Background: 401(k) How can I buy cryptocurrency?
In the past, Americans' 401(k) retirement accounts were like a "good baby fund pool" — they could only invest in traditional stable assets like stocks, bonds, and index funds. Previous regulatory bodies, such as the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) and the Department of Labor, were always afraid that you would use retirement funds for "gambling." However, just a few hours ago, in an executive order signed by Trump, it was required that relevant regulatory agencies (including the Department of Labor, SEC, etc.) review and relax rules, allowing 401(k) to invest in alternative assets such as crypto, private equity, and real estate. This means that although direct investment is still not possible for now, the "door" has finally been gently opened, just waiting for regulatory agencies to change the rules (currently, both the SEC and the Department of Labor are being managed by insiders).

PART 02
How large is the scale of 401(k), and what will the influx into crypto be like?
By 2025: 401(k) total assets are approximately $7.5 trillion, with a total market value of Bitcoin around $1.4 trillion. The total holdings of all spot Bitcoin ETFs amount to about $60 billion. Even if only 1% of the 401(k) funds enter crypto, it is equivalent to about 1.25 times the total size of the spot ETFs; if the penetration rate increases to 5%—10%, it would be 6.25—12.5 times the current ETF size — absolutely a "rocket booster" level!

PART 03
401(k) Characteristics of funds: Naturally a "long-term accumulation machine"
Long-term lock-in: Usually, funds can only be withdrawn after 59 and a half years, and early withdrawals are subject to taxes + penalties, which is naturally unsuitable for short-term speculation. Automated regular investment: Funds are automatically transferred to the account after salary payment, month after month without interruption. Low turnover rate: Unlike exchange wallets, once purchased, the coins may be held for a long time, reducing the circulating chips in the market. For the scarce Bitcoin (total supply of 21 million coins), this slow accumulation method is more like "dripping water穿石", gradually changing the supply and demand structure, pushing the price center to steadily rise.

PART 04
The long bull market has just begun.
The funds in and out of spot ETFs, such as the outflow of Ethereum's spot ETF at the beginning of the year, caused the price of Ethereum to plummet. Meanwhile, the funds of 401(k) are being gradually injected, steadily pushing the market up. As more 401(k) begin to allocate to cryptocurrencies, the penetration rate rises from 1% to 3%, 5%, and the reservoir for a slow bull market has gradually opened up. In the future, price fluctuations may decrease, but the central point will steadily rise. Clearly—this could be the true starting point for a long bull market.