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Interpret the PPI, I forgot to check it yesterday, previous value 0, expected 0.2, actual value 0.9
Among them, the service industry is 1.1% (accounting for 75%), portfolio management fees are 5.8%, trade: 2%, air tickets 1%, vegetables: 38.9%, eggs 7.3%
The employment subsidy is 224,000, previously it was 225,000.
PPI has risen, but CPI has not increased mainly because a lot of it is for export, which has not affected the domestic CPI in the US. Overall, it is expected that PPI will affect CPI in the future, with CPI rising, a decrease in the number of people receiving relief funds, and relatively good employment. The Federal Reserve has no reason to lower interest rates.
Why is Trump forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates? In July, tariff revenue was 26.7 billion, and the treasury is starting to have a surplus. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 1%, it can save 1 billion per day on U.S. debt. If they don't cut, the increased fiscal revenue from tariffs will just fill the gap in U.S. debt.
If interest rates are lowered, the U.S. will not be particularly harsh in tariff negotiations with China and sanctions against India and Russia, and it can appropriately ease up and end tariffs! If not lowered, there won't be much room for negotiation advantage. Apart from rare earths, China is now starting to use imported soybeans to counterattack the U.S.
The initial RRP was 20 trillion, and a while ago I saw it was still 2 trillion, but now it's only 22.8 billion. The liquidity in the US stock market comes from here.
The money from RRP is the surplus from institutions selling U.S. Treasury bonds and keeping it in the bank without moving it, earning interest.
If there is no interest rate cut in September, a big drop is inevitable. Even if there is a rate cut, the liquidity of funds is still insufficient because the Federal Reserve has not expanded its balance sheet.
PPI data will make Trump very uncomfortable, while the Federal Reserve remains more at ease, and the overall direction also supports the technical analysis.
Make a good strategy plan for taking profits during pullbacks!