#BTC# Weekly Plan

It is such a volatile week as expected amid the option expiry last Friday, uncertainty about the Ukraine-Russia war/peace, FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole meeting.

The Monday range was between 117510 and 114578. The first lower extension is between 113,950 and 114,240. This zone is also filled with liquidity.

The base case is a wick to that zone followed by a move to the upper extension between 117,840 and 118,140 which is also filled with liquidity.

The market may leave the liquidity below Monday low behind and front-run the market as it usually does. This is an alternative scenario in the case BTC doesn't print a lower low.

Retail started to believe in more downside since the bounce at high 116k's today and the percentage of retail shorts started to increase.

Either the base case, or the alternative case, the market maker will likely do a short squeeze after they are finished with liquidating longs, either at the Monday low, or the extension.

The easiest trade I can think of is a long from 114k to 118k if BTC visits that price. In that case the stop loss would be below 112.5k, below the previous dip and the lower extension of the Monday range. This setup is for the weekly plan long position.

If 112.5k is lost, BTC will likely visit the low 111k's. That would be the plan for a swing long.