DOGE falls below the key defense line crisis! The 200-day moving average becomes a life-and-death line, and dumping pressure may trigger a larger pullback.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently oscillating around the key price level of $0.211 (200-day EMA), which may determine its short-term trend. Derivatives market data shows that short positions are increasing, and on-chain whale dumping has intensified the downward pressure. If it closes below this level, DOGE may further pull back to the weekly support level of $0.181.

Derivation Market: Financing Rate Turns Negative, Short Positions Pressure Increases

(Source: CoinGlass)

According to CoinGlass data, the OI weighted funding rate for DOGE turned negative (-0.0010%) on September 2, indicating that short positions are paying fees to long positions.

Historical Rule: When the financing interest rate turns negative, the price of DOGE often falls afterwards.

(Source: CoinGlass)

Long-short ratio: The proportion of short positions has increased, and market sentiment is bearish.

This means that derivatives traders are cautious or even bearish about the short-term trend of DOGE.

on-chain data: Whale sold 250 million DOGE

(Source: Santiment)

Santiment's supply distribution data shows that since August 25, addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million DOGE have cumulatively sold 250 million DOGE.

100,000 to 1,000,000 coins (red line)

1 million to 10 million coins (yellow line)

10 million to 100 million pieces (blue line)

This kind of large-scale dumping behavior usually intensifies the downward pressure on the market in the short term.

Technical Analysis: 200-day EMA as a Key Defense Line

(Source: Trading View)

Current price level: $0.211 (200-day EMA)

RSI: 46, below neutral 50, indicating bearish momentum is still present.

MACD: Continuous bearish crossover, short positions trend continues

Downward Market Scenario:

If the daily close falls below 0.211 USD → it may retest the 0.181 USD weekly support level.

Bull Market Scenario:

If the 200-day EMA holds → it is expected to rebound to the 0.247 USD daily resistance level.

Short-term Observation Focus

Daily closing price: Can it stabilize at 0.211 USD

Changes in financing rates: If they remain negative, short positions pressure will continue.

Whale behavior: Observe whether large on-chain addresses have stopped dumping.

Conclusion

DOGE is currently under dual pressure from both technical and emotional factors: the derivatives market is dominated by short positions, on-chain whales continue to sell, and the technical aspect is approaching a key support level, resulting in significant short-term uncertainty. If the 200-day EMA is lost, the pullback space may open up to $0.181; conversely, if it holds the level, DOGE still has a chance to rebound and challenge $0.247.