U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.25%, the S&P 500 index up 0.21%, and the Nasdaq up 0.45%. TSL (TSLA.O) fell 1%, while 36Kr, which experienced multiple circuit breakers during the session, closed up 92% (KRKR.O). According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is 89.4%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.6%. The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is 14.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 76.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 8.9%.​

On Monday, the Bitcoin market finally broke the prolonged dull pattern and showed a significant fluctuation. Bitcoin started a strong upward movement in the afternoon, reaching a high of around 112850, showing good performance from the bulls. However, it is important to note that the previous starting point of 113500 is a crucial dividing line for bulls and bears. If the price cannot effectively break through this level, it is expected that the market will still return to a range-bound oscillation structure, with a risk of pullback after the rise. From the four-hour level, although Bitcoin has continuously closed in the green, it is clearly under pressure at the upper band, and the momentum for continuous breakout is still insufficient. The Bollinger Bands have not opened upwards, indicating that oscillation remains the main tone. Combined with the daily level, which is still within a downward channel, the middle band has become a key resistance, and the possibility of a large bearish reversal in the future is not low. The short-term bullish momentum has significantly weakened, making it difficult to push the price further upward.

Ethereum began to rebound from the early session low of 4276, reaching a peak of 4381 in the evening session before falling back, with a minimum drop to 4280 before rebounding again. The price movement of Ethereum has consistently operated within a limited range, indicating a relatively weaker market activity and momentum. However, from the price performance perspective, Ethereum is currently oscillating in the range of 4060-4540, which serves as strong support and resistance levels. Due to the shrinking trading volume, the short-term direction remains unclear. The resistance above Ethereum is also quite prominent, with the pressure from the 4500 box platform clearly visible during the upward movement, and it does not currently have the conditions to break through the resistance.