How far is the dream of DOGE reaching 1 dollar? Musk's silence + capital withdrawal, what is the short-term ceiling? Brother Tian reveals the truth.

Recently, there have been many voices claiming that "DOGE will definitely break 1 dollar," but it needs to be viewed objectively: in the long term (1-3 years), there is still a possibility to reach 1 dollar, but in the short to medium term (3-6 months), the reality is quite grim. This view is also recognized by rational investors—some fans bluntly stated: "Without Musk speaking, the focus is on AI and RWA, DOGE is silent, and it would be good if it can return to 0.6 dollars in the short term."

In the short term, DOGE needs to overcome three hurdles:

1. Musk's "Silence": The Core Narrative Engine Stalls

Musk is a key "fundamental" for DOGE, but his current focus is scattered: fully advancing the X platform (X Pay is hindered by regulations and progress is lagging), facing pressure from Tesla and xAI businesses, and paving the way for the 2028 election, his statements have become more cautious. Without his continuous "shouting", DOGE lacks a market trigger, and history has proven that after its explosive rise, it often experiences a long correction.

2. Fund "transference": DOGE becomes a "has-been narrative"

Currently, it is a structural bull market, and funds are not flooding in like in 2021: institutions and "smart money" are clustering around AI, RWA, and DePin (clear logic and definite expectations); DOGE, as an established meme coin, is temporarily categorized as "the narrative of the previous cycle"; although the Grayscale DOGE ETF is a potential positive, the process is lengthy (expected after 2026), making it difficult to address the current thirst for capital.

3. Technology + Emotion: $0.6 is the short-term "ceiling"

Significant pressure at the trading level: $0.6 is an area that has not been broken multiple times in 2021 and 2024, and there is heavy selling pressure from trapped investors; also, DOGE has been fluctuating between $0.2 and $0.3 recently, with no volume support, making it difficult to stabilize at the previous high.

Short-term caution, long-term logic remains unchanged.

I agree that "0.6 USD is the short-term ceiling," but the long-term narrative of "DOGE will eventually break 1" requires a catalyst: Musk speaking out for DOGE again or his companies integrating DOGE, the Grayscale DOGE ETF being approved, or the next round of a full bull market starting (funds benefiting the Meme sector).

Investor Strategy

- Already trapped: Light position holders can reduce their positions near $0.6 to lower costs, while remaining positions can aim for a long-term hold; heavy position holders need to wait for the long term.
- Still observing: Avoid large amounts of investment, it is recommended to build positions in batches with small positions of no more than 5% (for long-term dollar-cost averaging).

- General advice: Focus 90% of funds and energy on main lines such as AI and RWA, and after making a profit, allocate profits to high-risk assets like DOGE. #九月份加密市场能否突破#