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XRP ETF is Officially Coming

The XRPR ETF, to be launched by REX-Osprey, officially starts this week. This ETF will track the price of XRP one-to-one and provide investors with the opportunity to access the cryptocurrency through a regulated market instead of buying it directly. On the same day, the Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) will also be listed. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes these two products will generate significant interest in the market.

The Importance of ETF
1. Institutional Capital Inflow: Large funds and investors generally tend to gravitate towards regulated products. The XRP ETF opens this gate of trust.
2. Liquidity Increase: There may be a significant increase in daily trading volume with the ETF.
3. Market Psychology: As seen in examples of spot BTC and ETH ETFs, investor confidence may strengthen.

What Do On-Chain Data Say?
• Addresses in Profit: Approximately 54% of XRP addresses are currently in profit. This rate is critical because there have been profit-taking at similar levels before. The long-term holding of these addresses is important for sustaining the uptrend.
• Exchange Inflows/Outflows: There has been an increase in inflows to exchanges in recent days. This situation may create potential selling pressure. The liquidity pull after the ETF launch will determine the price direction.
• Whale Transactions: There is an increase in whale transactions over 1 million dollars. It seems that big players are positioning themselves ahead of the ETF. This could be both a source of opportunity and volatility.
• Supply Held by Top Addresses: The share of the top 100 wallets in the XRP supply is around 65%. After the ETF, whether this ratio has changed will be important for understanding institutional interest in the market.

Technical Outlook
• Critical Resistance: $0.55 – $0.60 range. A sustained breakout above this zone could reflect the ETF effect on prices.
• Support Levels: $0.50 main support, if broken, there is a risk of pullback to $0.45.
• RSI and Momentum: Currently, there is a strong bullish momentum on the RSI side, but the approach towards the overbought zone is noteworthy.

Lessons Learned from BTC and ETH ETFs
• Short-term Volatility: There may be rapid increases in the first wave after launch, followed by sharp profit-taking.
• Long-term Trust: ETFs have supported the growth of coins by increasing both institutional and individual interest over time. A similar process can be expected for XRP.

Possible Scenarios for XRP
• Positive Scenario: If there is a strong fund inflow into the ETF, XRP could climb above $0.70.
• Neutral Scenario: Holding is maintained above $0.55 but a sharp rise does not occur.
• Negative Scenario: The rise driven by ETF expectations may be negated by profit-taking, and the price could return to the $0.45 levels.

To quickly summarize the topic;

The XRP ETF could be a turning point in crypto history. Although on-chain metrics send mixed signals, it is an important development in terms of increasing institutional interest and boosting liquidity.

In my opinion, the real impact of the ETF will be seen more in the medium to long term rather than in the short term. However, caution is needed against volatility in the early days.

So do you think the XRP ETF will have as big an impact as the BTC and ETH ETFs?

It is not investment advice.