#Fed Rate Cut Ahead#

#Fed Rate Cut Ahead#

The expectation of an interest rate cut has sparked excitement in the cryptocurrency market again. The likelihood of a reduction of around 25 basis points in the upcoming FED meeting seems high, and this development could trigger short-term movements in major assets like BTC and ETH.

What Stands Out?
• Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $115K; this indicates that investors are on the sidelines.
• Ethereum has recently shown signs of strengthening around the $4.6K range.
• Market pricing reflects the likelihood of a Fed funds futures rate cut; deeper easing is also being discussed in some scenarios.

Expected Effects and Risks

Possible positive effects:
• When interest rates fall, the appeal of fixed income instruments like bonds decreases; capital seeks higher returns and risk appetite increases. This can accelerate entries into crypto.
• Falling interest rates reduce borrowing costs; increased liquidity may support risky assets.

Potential risks:
• "Sell the news" (news selling) effect: the expectation of discounts may raise prices, but profit realizations may be seen after the news.
• If economic data comes in differently than expected, the effect of the discount may be limited; in this case, the market may become unstable.

My Strategy (Short and Clear)
• I see dips below $114K for BTC as a risk signal; staying above $117K would be positive.
• Support around $4.5K in ETH is significant; maintaining this support could bolster the $5K+ target.
• After the news, I monitor on-chain data such as ( exchange inflows/outflows, active address count, whale movements) along with volume and daily closes — these confirm the real trend.

What is your opinion — does this Fed rate cut expectation sustainably lift crypto, or is it limited to a short-term reaction?

It is not investment advice.