Analysts have diverged in their forecasts for Bitcoin.

##Analysts have diverged in their forecasts for Bitcoin.

The implied volatility of the first cryptocurrency has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. This was reported by analysts at XWIN Research.

Bitcoin’s Calm Before the Storm

“These three signals paint a consistent picture: exchange supply is drying up, investors are sitting tight, and derivatives markets are calm. While implied volatility points to one of the quietest phases in years.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/e5aGBbcpb0

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 24, 2025

Last time, such a situation preceded a price increase from $29 000 to historical highs. Blockchain data indicates a "calm before the storm," experts believe.

###Three Key Signals

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline and are near multi-year lows. This indicates a decrease in the number of coins available for immediate sale. Historically, a drop in reserves has led to a supply shortage during a sharp increase in demand, experts highlighted.

The MVRV ratio is in a neutral zone around the value of 2.1. XWIN Research pointed out the absence of a strong incentive for investors to engage in panic selling or mass profit-taking.

Funding rates on major exchanges remain moderate. This indicates that traders in the derivatives market are not opening high-leverage long or short positions.

###Possible Pressure

CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno noted a brief surge in the influx of bitcoins to trading platforms, reaching 5000 BTC per hour.

Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has grown in the last few hours, and reached a hourly high of 5K. pic.twitter.com/RguZW2ZYZZ

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) September 23, 2025

His colleague Axel Adler - the junior believes that the market structure has shifted in favor of bearish.

The market structure has shifted, with the composite index falling below the −0.4 threshold, indicating bear dominance, a negative fast–slow EMA spread accounting for the trend and price positioning in the lower part of the 21-day Donchian Channel.

The market has transitioned… pic.twitter.com/NnS1Xkw5NE

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 24, 2025

In his opinion, the current price bounces are merely "correction rallies" and not the beginning of a new trend.

According to Glassnode, inflows into American spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed down after a strong start in September, and recent sessions show a slight outflow of funds. This may indicate a pause in institutional demand.

Analysts also noted that long-term holders have already realized historically large profits — 3.4 million BTC since the new cycle peak was reached.

###What about Ethereum?

On the Ethereum market, the key support zone could be the level of $2900. According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Keshmeci, this is the average purchase price of the second largest cryptocurrency for "accumulation addresses".

Source: CryptoQuant. The total balance on such wallets has reached 27.6 million ETH. In the event of a strong correction, the level mentioned by the expert may provide significant support for the price.

Additional pressure on the Ethereum market is created by the upcoming expiration of options worth $5.5 billion. The "maximum pain" point for this event is at $3700 — the level at which holders will incur the greatest losses.

The put-call ratio is 0.76, indicating moderately bearish sentiment. The large volume indicates high trader interest and expectations of increased volatility near the expiration date.

Let us remind you that on September 23, the analyst under the nickname Mr. Anderson also noted that the volatility of digital gold reached a historic minimum.