Recent market trends indicate that a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy may be imminent. According to CME forecasts, there is a 94.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October. This data suggests that a rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, with less than a 6% slight chance of maintaining the status quo.

As a professional who has been paying attention to macroeconomic trends for a long time, I believe this will have a significant short- to medium-term impact on the cryptocurrency market:

First, market expectations will play a leading role. Investors may digest this positive news in advance, and the reduced cost of funds may encourage some capital to flow into high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.

However, we also need to stay clear-headed. A 94% probability does not equate to a 100% commitment, and the market has already reacted to this expectation to some extent. The key lies in the Federal Reserve's subsequent statements after the interest rate cut—whether it will continue to ease monetary policy or if it is merely a one-time measure. A true bull market requires a clear and sustained interest rate cut cycle to support it.

Therefore, the current investment strategy should be 'cautiously optimistic'. Do not go all in due to temporary excitement. What will be the market's direction next? After interest rate cuts, will there be a 'favorable situation exhausted' or will it become the 'starting point of a bull market'? These are all issues that we need to closely monitor.

The expectation of interest rate cuts may impact the overall market, but it remains to be seen whether it will first affect the large market or small cryptocurrencies. In any case, when making investment decisions, one should fully consider the complexity and uncertainty of the market.