/ Altcoins (macro cycle)


Now, the more exciting part.
Late cycle, second and last Bitcoin leg, it all sounds scary, but historically, this short period is where people make their gains.
/ Bitcoin dominance
90% of the cycle is Bitcoin and Bitcoin dominance trending up, with only the last 5–10% giving a short window where dominance trends down and altcoins get their time to shine.
Here you can see that basically throughout the whole cycle Bitcoin dominance rises, and only in the last leg (the 2nd leg into new highs) dominance starts falling.
You can already see the usual Bitcoin dominance weakness.
/ Total Altcoin market cap charts
Also, looking at Total3 (total altcoin market cap including majors) and the ‘Others’ chart (total altcoin market cap excluding top 10), we can see that, as in every cycle, they mirror the Bitcoin range and cycle structure, just lagging behind.
There hasn’t been a cycle where they didn’t, super late cycle, catch up and break above the range high into price discovery.
/ Ethereum & Altcoin positions
On top of how dominance looks now, how it usually behaves at this stage of the cycle, and how the total altcoin charts look, we also have Ethereum and the general altcoin structures.
> Ethereum USD
Already rallied from the range lows: a perfect cycle stage 3/4 range low reclaim and send towards the range highs.
1. Ethereum usually front-runs the rest of the altcoin market.
2. Still expecting Ethereum hasn’t finished and will complete its cycle structure into new highs.
> Ethereum BTC
Still at the exact same spot ETHUSD was a couple of months ago before the rally.
I don’t know if it can complete its full cycle structure towards the highs with current Bitcoin prices, BUT regardless of expectations, it’s a bullish structure now reclaiming the range low in stage 4.
> Altcoin structures
Many Altcoins right now are either in stage 3 accumulation or reclaiming and retesting the range lows in stage 4.
Taken into consideration:
> How Bitcoin dominance looks
> How Altcoins (and BTC.D) historically always performed in this part of the cycle
> How total altcoin market cap charts look
> What Ethereum did and how ethbtc looks
> How many Altcoin charts out there look right now
I am macro bullish on altcoins, and while I think it’s good to slowly scale out and that there’s no reason to be as exposed as earlier this cycle, it’s worth focusing on scaling into altcoins here for the final party.
I also want to (again) note that we’ve been hit with massive dilution in the altcoin space over the last couple of years, peaking this cycle.
More than ever, it’s important to focus on strength, outliers, and understanding what sectors the market likes.
It’s not about what you like: you need to figure out what the market likes, as not everything will pump like in 2017. $BTC $ETH $GT #Gateperpdexislive #Cryptomarketrebound #ShowMyAlphaPoints
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