This morning, I cleared the short-term ETH small Position, getting on board at 3900 and leaving at 4200. A little profit is enough for some food and drinks during the National Day holiday.

The main reason for exiting is seeing that the U.S. government is likely to shut down on October 1st, which will directly affect the release of labor data on October 3rd. I vaguely remember that a few years ago, during Trump's presidency, the shutdown was also caused by disagreements between the two parties. I checked online and found that it shut down for 36 days from December 2018 to January 2019, during which BTC fell by 6%. The price range that year was over 3000 USD.
Everyone is aware that the employment data from the United States is crucial this time, as it is basically used to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again and by how much. If the data is delayed due to a shutdown, I personally believe that it will likely exacerbate market volatility in the short term.
Another three judgment factors: the first is that the price has reached the pressure level of technical indicators. Currently, although it has broken through the previous high, the volume is insufficient, and there is indeed a possibility of further retracement. The second is that in the past two years during the National Day holiday, the market has experienced retracement and bottoming. I am not sure if this is due to domestic funds leaving for the holiday, but the data is here. While it may not form a pattern, at least it serves as a basis for judgment.
The third point is that the long positions at the 100,000 phase bottom on the liquidation map have accumulated again over the weekend, indicating that the bullish momentum is still quite strong. Considering the sentiment indicators in the market, I always believe that the current market's squeeze on the long contracts has not yet reached an extremely terrifying level, and the voices supporting a bullish outlook in the market remain relatively consistent. Many experienced retail investors are actually in a watchful state. The outflow data of BTC and ETH ETFs in the past two days indirectly proves this point. (Figure 1)
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. The thing that the risk market dislikes the most is policy uncertainty, so my operation decision during the holiday is to take short-term profits and exit, holding the position and observing. The long-term large position remains unchanged. At this stage, having a position that can be flexibly adjusted is more important than anything else. Of course, this is just my personal opinion and may not be correct; please refer to it cautiously.
Recently, the concept of DEX has become quite popular. I made some short-term trades with a small position in ASTER and AVNT and made a profit. This has been mentioned in previous updates and the comment section as well. The coins endorsed by Boss Zhao are worth considering for long-term planning. Of course, laying out long positions doesn't have to be rushed by current hype. If you review the majority of new coins that can rise more than 10 times in this round, they generally go through a year-long dormant period, and after a violent cleanup of leveraged positions, there will be a continuous 2-3 month climbing period.
If you have more than 2 years of experience, after understanding the fundamentals, it is still worthwhile to start with a small Position for DCA when waiting for the coin price to pull back. Personally, I believe that DEX will be one of the trends in the crypto space in the future. There are many rising stars in this track, with UNI that became famous in 2021 and the upcoming HYPE in 2024. The DEX space is not overly crowded, and there is still a lot of speculation space for RWA and DIFI derivatives.
Speaking of HYPE, I saw some very interesting data on this platform, and I'm sharing it with everyone to see whether this is a prank or a glimmer of hope? (Image 2) #GatePerpDEX正式上线 #加密市场反弹 #BTC走势分析