Technical forecast for Ethereum (ETH/USD): key levels determine the recovery path ahead of the fourth quarter

The technical situation of Ethereum remains constructive after a sharp correction from the peak of $4758, while the price consolidates above the key support area of $3940–$3950. This zone coincides with the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382 and has served as a reliable protective base throughout October.

Growth levels: The nearest resistance is at the level of $4250–$4270, which coincides with the Fibonacci level 0.618 and the 200-day EMA, which are key thresholds for restoring bullish momentum. A breakout and a sustained close above this range could lift ETH to $4476 (0.786 Fibonacci) and potentially retest the high of $4758.
Support levels: Initial support is near $4098, while deeper support remains at $3943. A drop below $3940 could trigger further selling towards the Fibonacci levels $3750 (0,236 and $3439, where previous consolidation zones may provide relief.
Resistance ceiling: the area ) remains a key level that has overcome the medium-term trend. A decisive rise above this level is likely to confirm the recovery structure that began at the end of the fourth quarter.
A broader structure suggests that Ethereum is oscillating between converging moving averages, reflecting a compression before a potential increase in volatility. The crossover of the 20-day EMA above the 50-day EMA signals a strengthening of the short-term momentum; however, confirmation depends on a sustained rise above the 200-day EMA.

Will Ethereum be able to recover?
The trajectory of Ethereum depends on whether buyers can hold the base at $3940 while simultaneously absorbing the renewed influx of funds. Spot data recently showed a positive net inflow of $13.36 million, indicating a resumption of accumulation after a significant outflow earlier this month. Combined with an open interest of $46.8 billion, which is the highest level since the beginning of 2025, the market reflects strengthening confidence among both retail and institutional participants.

If the bullish momentum continues, ETH may test the resistance cluster of $4476–$4758. However, if the price does not hold above $3940, a correction may continue down to $4270 or lower. The fourth quarter remains crucial as technical depression, macroeconomic sentiment, and positions in derivatives align, setting the stage for the next significant move of Ethereum.