Juan Villaverde's Analysis: A New Signal for the Price of Bitcoin

Quantitative analyst Juan Villaverde has sparked a debate about a little-known indicator of Bitcoin price cycles. In a series of posts, Villaverde argues that a “neglected asset class” consistently pivots months before Bitcoin, providing what he calls “a lead on major turning points.”

The Mysterious Market Signal

Villaverde claims to have identified an indicator that can signal the direction of Bitcoin up to six months in advance. According to his analysis, this little-monitored asset in the crypto context consistently shows trend changes before Bitcoin.

Historical Patterns and Predictions

The Villaverde model is based on data that dates back to the beginning of modern crypto markets. Some key points include:

• The minimum of December 2018 in Bitcoin was preceded by a significant low in the mysterious asset.
• In November 2021, the benchmark asset failed to break upward, foreshadowing the bearish market of 2022.

Implications for the Current Market

According to Villaverde's analysis:

• A significant peak in Bitcoin is expected around the end of November 2025.
• If the reference asset exceeds its April high, Bitcoin could continue rising until 2026.
• A decisive breakout to the downside would be an early warning of the end of the bull market after November.

Robustness of the Model

Villaverde insists that the relationship he has identified is solid because it focuses on both the magnitude and direction of movements. This allows capturing the cycles of investor psychology, from fear to greed.

Note: This information is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.