ETH October 22 Market Analysis

1. Trend Analysis

· Strengthening of the bearish pattern: The price has fallen below all medium and short-term EMAs, showing a complete bearish arrangement.
· Crash confirmed: A single-day drop of 5.5%, quickly falling from a high of 4,109 to 3,855.
· Key support test: Testing the key support at 3,818.30 (24-hour low)
· Only defense line: only EMA180(3,632.47) still provides long-term support.

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Strong bearish momentum:
· DIF(-17.36) < DEA(-95.76), MACD histogram is negative (-11.6)
· Although the gap between DIF and DEA has narrowed, it remains in a deep negative value area.
· The downtrend has not yet ended

3. Volume Analysis

· Decreased volume decline: The current trading volume of 821 million is relatively low.
· Market implication: There is no panic selling during the decline, but buying pressure is extremely low.
· Need to pay attention: If there is a significant drop in volume, it may accelerate the downward trend.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Strong Resistance 1: 3,905.06 (EMA5)
· Strong resistance 2: 3,961.79 (EMA10)
· Strong resistance 3: 4,093-4,122 (EMA72-EMA20 zone)
· Support Level:
· Key support: 3,818.30 (24-hour low)
· Last line of defense: 3,632.47 (EMA180)

Market Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (60% probability): Continue to test EMA180 downward.

1. Reason: The sharp decline has damaged the technical formation + bearish arrangement of moving averages + MACD is bearish
2. Downward target:
· First target: 3,818.30 (pre-test low)
· Second target: 3,632.47 (EMA180 strong support)
3. Nature Judgment: If it falls below 3,632, it may trigger a deeper decline.

Possible scenario (30% probability): Technical rebound

1. Condition: Obtain support around 3,818 to see a sharp rebound.
2. Rebound target: 3,905-3,960 range (EMA5-EMA10 resistance zone)
3. Requirements: Need to increase trading volume in conjunction

Low probability scenario (10% probability): rapid reversal

1. Condition: Significant positive news drives buying pressure
2. Feature: A surge in volume with a long bullish candle directly breaks through 3,960
3. Extremely low probability: current technical indicators strongly support continued decline.

Trading Suggestions

For long holders:

· It is recommended to reduce positions during rebounds: consider reducing positions or exiting in the 3,880-3,920 range.
· Strict Stop Loss: Set below 3,810
· If it falls below 3,818, all positions should be exited immediately.

For short-sellers/wait-and-see investors:

· You can short with a light position between 3,860-3,880, with a stop loss above 3,920.
· Target levels: 3,820, 3,650
· Wait for a pullback to the 3,650-3,630 support area before considering a long position.

Risk Control Focus:

· Key observation points:
· Is the 3,818 support level effective?
· Trading Volume Changes
· 3,905 resistance strength
· Short Stop Loss: Break through 3,930
· Long entry point: 3,650-3,630 (near EMA180)

Risk Warning

1. A single-day plunge of 5.5% shows strong bearish momentum, making it difficult to have a strong performance in the short term.
2. The EMA180 support at 3,632 is the last line of defense, and losing it will open up greater downward space.
3. The overall market sentiment is extremely weak, affecting the independent movement of ETH.
4. It is recommended to operate with a very light position, strictly set stop-loss, and control risks.

Summary: ETH is currently in a clear bearish trend, with multiple technical indicators sending strong bearish signals. The probability of continuing to test the support levels at 3,818 and 3,632 in the short term is quite high. The approach should focus on shorting on rallies, with strict risk control, and patiently waiting for the opportunity to enter long positions near the strong support at 3,632. Current market sentiment is pessimistic, making it unwise to blindly catch the bottom.