The U.S. inflation data for September will be announced tonight at 20:30, with market expectations for the overall CPI year-on-year rate at 3.1%, a significant rebound compared to last month. The predictions from the Cleveland Fed and Nick are 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively, indicating that the inflation center remains at a high level. It is worth noting that the current rise in inflation is mainly due to the transmission effect of the new tariff policy implemented in August; such one-time cost shocks are typically short-term in nature, thus having limited direct impact on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

The current focus of the Federal Reserve's policy has shifted to the labor market. Although the government shutdown has led to a delay in employment data updates, the market generally expects its performance to likely indicate weakness. The implied probability of a rate cut in October by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has reached 98.9%, showing strong market expectations for easing this month. If the CPI data meets expectations, this probability may only be slightly adjusted downward, but the rate cut decision itself remains highly certain. If inflation continues to rise, it may reduce the space for further easing in December.

Core CPI expectations are also 3.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the Cleveland Fed's forecast is slightly lower at 2.95%. If both indicators do not exceed expectations, the market reaction will be restrained. However, if the data unexpectedly falls below expectations (such as double 3.0%), it could strengthen the optimistic sentiment towards risk assets. Additionally, income growth, as an indirect indicator of the health of the labor market, should also be monitored in the report.

Overall, unless the inflation data significantly deviates from the expected range, the disturbance to market volatility will be relatively limited. Current pricing has fully reflected the expectation of a rate cut in October, and the uncertainty of the policy path is more focused on the adjustment of the year-end rhythm. #CPI数据来袭 #你最看好哪个GateFunMeme？ #比特币行情预测