BTC Market Analysis on October 31

1. Trend Analysis

· Key position contest: The current price of 109,268.6 is almost overlapping with the EMA180 at 109,294.9, testing this important long-term support.
· Short selling pressure still exists: the price is below EMA5, EMA10, EMA30, and EMA72, indicating a weak short-term trend.
· Signs of rebound: The price has rebounded from the low of 106,236.1 to the current level, indicating that buying pressure has started to come in.
· Deep pullback status: down from the high point of 128,615.2 to the current level, a decline of about 15%

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Positive signal appears:
· The MACD value turned positive at 39.7, indicating a strengthening short-term momentum.
· Although DIF and DEA are still in a large negative value, the positive MACD indicates that the downward momentum is weakening.
· This is a potential technical rebound signal

3. Volume Analysis

· Significant decrease in volume: The current trading volume of 204 million is far lower than the 5-day average of 1.955 billion and the 10-day average of 1.7437 billion.
· Market Meaning: Insufficient trading volume during the rebound process restricts the upward space.
· Confirmation needed: To effectively break through resistance, it must be accompanied by increased volume.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Immediate resistance: 109,983.0 (24-hour high)
· Strong Resistance 1: 110,137.3 (EMA5)
· Strong Resistance 2: 110,629.2 (EMA10)
· Support Level:
· Key support: 109,294.9 (EMA180)
· Strong support 1: 106,236.1 (24-hour low)
· Strong support 2: 105,276.1 (previous low)

Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (50% probability): oscillating upward to test resistance

1. Reason: MACD turns positive + price stabilizes above EMA180 + rebounds from the low point
2. Upward Target:
· First target: 109,983 (24-hour high)
· Second target: 110,137-110,629 (EMA5-EMA10 resistance zone)
3. Key condition: need to confirm the increase in trading volume

Possible scenario (30% probability): Pullback test support

1. Trigger condition: Rebound after being blocked by the resistance at 110,000.
2. Callback target: 108,500-107,500 range
3. Nature Judgment: As long as it does not fall below 106,236, it remains a healthy pullback.

Low probability scenario (20% probability): direct breakout upwards

1. Condition: Break through 110,600 with significant volume and hold steady.
2. Features: Strong buying pressure emerges
3. Target range: 111,000-112,000 area

Trading Suggestions

For long holders:

· Can continue to hold, set stop loss below 108,800
· A rebound to the range of 109,800-110,200 can be considered for partial reduction of positions.
· If it breaks 110,000 and increases in volume, it can be held and observed.

For short sellers/observers:

· You can short with a light position at 109,800-110,000, with a stop loss above 110,300.
· A better strategy is to wait for a pullback to the support area of 108,500-107,500 to position long orders.
· Stop loss for short position when breaking 110,300 with volume.

Key Focus on Risk Control:

· Key Observations:
· Is the support at 109,295 effective
· Can the trading volume be increased?
· 109,983 resistance breakout situation
· Long Stop Loss: Below 108,800
· Short Stop Loss: Break through 110,400

Risk Warning

1. Insufficient trading volume is a major risk, and a significant increase in volume is needed to confirm a rebound.
2. The EMA180 support at 109,295 is crucial; a breakdown will open up greater downward space.
3. The dense moving average resistance is in the range of 110,100-110,600, making it difficult to break through.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly implement stop-loss, and control risks.

Summary: BTC currently shows a technical rebound signal, with the MACD turning positive indicating a short-term exhaustion of downward momentum, and the price receiving buying support at the key support level of EMA180. In terms of operations, cautious long positions can be taken, but close attention should be paid to the breakthrough of key resistance levels and changes in trading volume. If the resistance at 109,983 is broken with increased volume, it will further confirm the rebound trend; otherwise, it may test support again.